基于Multi-Agent系统模型的生鲜农产品有效供给对策研究

管理评论 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 310-325.

基于Multi-Agent系统模型的生鲜农产品有效供给对策研究

边晓雨¹, 姚冠新², 施国洪¹, 徐静³

1. 江苏大学管理学院, 镇江 212000;
2. 扬州大学现代物流研究基地, 扬州 225009;
3. 扬州大学商学院, 扬州 225000

收稿日期:2019-12-23 出版日期:2022-07-28 发布日期:2022-08-19
通讯作者: 姚冠新（通讯作者），扬州大学现代物流研究基地教授，博士生导师。
作者简介:边晓雨，江苏大学管理学院博士研究生;施国洪，江苏大学管理学院教授，博士生导师;徐静，扬州大学商学院副教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（71773104）；江苏省科协调研课题（JSKXKT2020009）；中国博士后基金面上项目（2019M661960）；江苏省政府决策咨询研究重点课题。

Research on Effective Supply of Fresh Agricultural Products Based on Multi-agent System Mode

Bian Xiaoyu¹, Yao Guanxin², Shi Guohong¹, Xu Jing³

1. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212000;
2. Modern Logistics Research Base, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009;
3. School of Business, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225000

Received:2019-12-23 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-08-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 现阶段我国生鲜农产品供需不匹配的问题严重影响了经济社会的均衡稳定发展，提高生鲜农产品的有效供给成为亟需达成的目标。本文提炼主体属性、行为决策范式与交互规则，建立生鲜农产品供需系统的Multi-Agent模型，并通过仿真实验研究不同情境下微观供给主体的行为变化，探索有效供给的驱动方案，以期更好地促进我国生鲜农产品供给的健康发展。研究结果表明：供给主体是有效供给行为的执行者，信息传递的有效性和及时性是保障有效供给的基础与前提，而利益诱导则是引导供给主体扩大有效供给的关键。只有在高效信息传递的基础上根据预期需求实时调整价格补贴，才能扩大生鲜农产品的有效供给。

关键词: 生鲜农产品, 有效供给, Multi-Agent系统

Abstract: At present, the mismatch between supply and demand of fresh agricultural products in China has seriously affected the balanced and stable development of economy and society. By abstracting the subject attribute, behavior decision-making paradigm and interaction rules, this paper establishes a multi-agent model of fresh agricultural products supply and demand system to study the benefit-driven change of micro supply subject behaviors through simulation experiment and explore a solution to effective supply in the hope of better promoting the healthy development of fresh agricultural products supply in China. The results show that the supply subject is the executor of the effective supply behavior, the effectiveness and timeliness of information transmission is the basis and premise of effective supply, and the benefit induction is the key for the supply subject to expand effective supply. Only on the basis of efficient information transmission and real-time adjustment of price subsidies according to expected demand can we expand the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.

Key words: fresh agricultural products, effective supply, multi-agent system

边晓雨, 姚冠新, 施国洪, 徐静. 基于Multi-Agent系统模型的生鲜农产品有效供给对策研究[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(7): 310-325.

Bian Xiaoyu, Yao Guanxin, Shi Guohong, Xu Jing. Research on Effective Supply of Fresh Agricultural Products Based on Multi-agent System Mode[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(7): 310-325.

参考文献

[1] 冯颖,李智慧,张炎治.零售商主导下TPL介入的生鲜农产品供应链契约效率评价[J].管理评论, 2018,30(3):215-225
[2] 徐鹏,伏红勇,王磊,等.农产品供应链金融中银行对3PL的激励监督机制研究[J].管理评论, 2018,30(10):28-41
[3] 苗珊珊.突发事件信息冲击对猪肉价格波动的影响[J].管理评论, 2018,30(9):246-255
[4] Mylan J., Geels F.W., Gee S., et al.Eco-innovation and Retailers in Milk, Beef and Bread Chains:Enriching Environmental Supply Chain Management with Insights from Innovation Studies[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014,107:20-30
[5] 姚冠新,徐静,周正嵩.基于BP神经网络的我国蔬菜供需预测及对策研究[J].吉林师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 36(2):9-14
[6] 杨果.农产品生产与流通的协调机制研究——基于农业供给侧结构性改革的视角[J].农村经济, 2017,(10):64-67
[7] 汪旭晖,张其林.电子商务破解生鲜农产品流通困局的内在机理——基于天猫生鲜与沱沱工社的双案例比较研究[J].中国软科学, 2016,(2):39-55
[8] 唐润,李倩倩,彭洋洋.考虑质量损失的生鲜农产品双渠道市场出清策略研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2018,38(10):2542-2555
[9] 郑琪,范体军.考虑风险偏好的生鲜农产品供应链激励契约设计[J].管理工程学报, 2018,32(2):171-178
[10] 孙红雨.绿色贸易壁垒对中俄农产品出口贸易的影响研究[J].改革, 2019,(2):149-157
[11] 田虹,陈柔霖.绿色产品创新对企业绿色竞争优势的影响——东北农产品加工企业的实证数据[J].科技进步与对策, 2018,35(16):44-52
[12] 陈卫平.乡村振兴战略背景下农户生产绿色转型的制度约束与政策建议——基于47位常规生产农户的深度访谈[J].探索, 2018,(3):138-147
[13] Davis F.D.Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and User Acceptance of Information Technology[J].MIS Quarterly, 1989,13(3):319-340
[14] Ajzen I.The Theory of Planned Behavior[J].Research in Nursing&Health, 1991,50(2):179-211
[15] Perugini M., Bagozzi R.P.The Role of Desires and Anticipated Emotions in Goal-directed Behavior:Broadening and Deepening the Theory of Planned Behavior[J].British Journal of Social Psychology, 2001,40(1):79-98
[16] 甘臣林,谭永海,陈璐,等.基于TPB框架的农户认知对农地转出意愿的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2018,28(5):152-159
[17] 杨柳,朱玉春,任洋.收入差异视角下农户参与小农水管护意愿分析——基于TPB和多群组SEM的实证研究[J].农村经济, 2018,(1):103-110
[18] Aurelio T., Pierpaolo S., Orlando T., et al.Extended Theory of Planned Behavior (ETPB):Investigating Customers'Perception of Restaurants'Sustainability by Testing a Structural Equation Model[J].Sustainability, 2018,10(7):2580-2594
[19] Zhang L., Ruiz-Menjivar J., Luo B., et al.Predicting Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Behaviors in Agricultural Production:A Comparison of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Value-Belief-Norm Theory[J].Journal of Environmental Psychology, 2020,10(7):20-24
[20] 徐敏杰,胡兆光.基于Agent的经济政策对电力消费影响模拟实验[J].系统管理学报, 2011,(5):539-548
[21] 金淳,张一平.基于Agent的顾客行为及个性化推荐仿真模型[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2013,33(2):463-472
[22] 王涛,陈海,白红英,等.基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].自然资源学报, 2009,24(12):2056-2066
[23] Dahlke J.A., Kostal J.W., Sackett P.R., et al.Changing Abilities vs.Changing Tasks:Examining Validity Degradation with Test Scores and College Performance Criteria Both Assessed Longitudinally[J].Journal of Applied Psychology, 2018,103(9):277-296
[24] Jinsong C.A Hierarchical Taxonomy of Test Validity for More Flexibility of Validation[J].Frontiers in Psychology, 2018,9(9):972-981