基于技术债务角度的企业IT项目管理演化博弈分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着信息技术的发展，企业IT项目的复杂程度不断提升。尽管项目管理者不断强调持续关注技术卓越和良好设计以增强灵活性，但项目实践中为了尽快交付成果而导致技术债务不断累积的现象仍然层出不穷，如何权衡技术债务带来的战略优势和客户收益损失，成为项目管理科学决策的重要问题。本文基于技术债务和“情境—应对”模式，分别建立不考虑项目成果接受者收益的演化博弈模型和考虑项目成果接受者收益的演化博弈模型，探究项目实施者和项目成果接受者在不同技术债务情境和不同应对策略下的演化均衡策略，并通过MATLAB进行仿真分析，得出结论和提出建议。从短期发展来看，企业可以通过战略性地产生技术债务获得竞争优势，但严重技术债务可能会导致系统不可维护性与不可演化性，产生巨大的偿还成本，企业应当根据技术债务演化的不同阶段选择合适的引导方案。从长期发展来看，严重的技术债务情境对于项目成果接受者是严格下策，企业应该尽可能避免项目陷入严重的技术债务以维护客户收益最大化，实现可持续共赢发展。

关键词: IT项目管理, 技术债务, 演化博弈

Abstract: With the development of technology, enterprise IT projects are becoming increasingly complex. Although project managers strongly recommend enhancing flexibility by focusing on technological excellence and good design, practitioners are often seen to build up technical debt in order to deliver the project sooner. Therefore, it is important for project managers to find how to balance the strategic advantages and the benefit loss of recipients brought by technical debt. Based on the theory of technical debt and scenario-response model, two evolutionary game models are established with one taking recipients' benefits into consideration and the other not. The evolutionary equilibrium strategies of project implementers and recipients are explored and simulated by MATLAB under different technical debt scenarios and different coping strategies, after which conclusions and suggestions are put forward. In the short term, enterprises can gain competitive advantages by strategically generating technical debt. However, serious technology debt may lead to non-maintainability and non-resolvability of the system, resulting in huge repayment costs. Enterprises should choose appropriate guidance schemes according to different stages of technical debt evolution. In the long run, serious technical debt scenario is a strict poor policy for the project recipients. Enterprises should avoid the serious technical debt in order to maximize customer revenues and achieve sustainable win-win development.

Key words: IT project management, technical debt, evolutionary game

张丽, 侯立文. 基于技术债务角度的企业IT项目管理演化博弈分析[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(7): 165-174.

Zhang Li, Hou Liwen. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Enterprise IT Project Management from the Perspective of Technical Debt[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(7): 165-174.

参考文献

[1] 刘亚珺,李兵,李增扬,等.软件集成开发环境的技术债务管理研究[J].计算机科学, 2017,44(11):15-21
[2] Ampatzoglou A., Chatzigeorgiou A., et al.The Financial Aspect of Managing Technical Debt:A Systematic Literature Review[J].Information and Software Technology, 2015,64:52-73
[3] Cunningham W.The WyCash Portfolio Management System[J].ACM SIGPLAN OOPS Messenger, 1993,4(2):29-30
[4] Tom E., Aurum A., Vidgen R.T.A Consolidated Understanding of Technical Debt[C].ECIS, 2012
[5] Li Z., Avgeriou P., Liang P.A Systematic Mapping Study on Technical Debt and Its Management[J].Journal of Systems and Software, 2015,101:193-220
[6] El Emam K., Koru A.G.A Replicated Survey of IT Software Project Failures[J].IEEE Software, 2008,25(5):84-90
[7] Allman E.Managing Technical Debt[J].Communications of the ACM, 2012,55(5):50-55
[8] Behutiye W.N., Rodríguez P., Oivo M., et al.Analyzing the Concept of Technical Debt in the Context of Agile Software Development:A Systematic Literature Review[J].Information and Software Technology, 2017,82:139-158
[9] Siebra C.A., Oliveira R.G., Seaman C.B., et al.Theoretical Conceptualization of TD:A Practical Perspective[J].Journal of Systems and Software, 2016,120:219-237
[10] Curtis B., Sappidi J., Szynkarski A.Estimating the Principal of an Application's Technical Debt[J].IEEE Software, 2012,29(6):34-42
[11] Seaman C., Guo Y., Zazworka N., et al.Using Technical Debt Data in Decision Making:Potential Decision Approaches[C].2012 Third International Workshop on Managing Technical Debt (MTD).IEEE, 2012
[12] Brown N., Cai Y., Guo Y., et al.Managing Technical Debt in Software-Reliant Systems[C].Proceedings of the FSE/SDP Workshop on Future of Software Engineering Research, 2010
[13] Shull F., Falessi D., Seaman C., et al.Technical Debt:Showing the Way for Better Transfer of Empirical Results[M]//Perspectives on the Future of Software Engineering.Berlin, Heidelberg:Springer, 2013
[14] Falessi D., Shaw M.A., Shull F., et al.Practical Considerations, Challenges, and Requirements of Tool-Support for Managing Technical Debt[C].20134th International Workshop on Managing Technical Debt (MTD).IEEE, 2013
[15] Zazworka N., Seaman C., Shull F.Prioritizing Design Debt Investment Opportunities[C].Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on Managing Technical Debt.ACM, 2011
[16] Fernández-Sánchez C., Garbajosa J., Yagüe A., et al.Identification and Analysis of the Elements Required to Manage Technical Debt by Means of a Systematic Mapping Study[J].Journal of Systems and Software, 2017,124:22-38
[17] 唐天广,吕本富.Web软件项目的风险管理研究[J].管理评论, 2009,21(3):43-47
[18] 焦媛媛,刘亚光,熊剑芳,等.项目组合成功测量及其影响因素:基于中国情境的实证研究[J].管理评论, 2016,28(10):214-228
[19] Guo Y., Seaman C.A Portfolio Approach to Technical Debt Management[C].Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on Managing Technical Debt.ACM, 2011
[20] Seaman C., Guo Y., Zazworka N., et al.Using Technical Debt Data in Decision Making:Potential Decision Approaches[C].2012 Third International Workshop on Managing Technical Debt (MTD).IEEE, 2012
[21] Kappelman L.A., McKeeman R., Zhang L.Early Warning Signs of IT Project Failure:The Dominant Dozen[J].Information Systems Management, 2006,23(4):31-36
[22] Guo Y., Seaman C., Gomes R., et al.Tracking Technical Debt-An Exploratory Case Study[C].201127th IEEE International Conference on Software Maintenance (ICSM).IEEE, 2011
[23] Zazworka N., Spínola R.O., Vetro A., et al.A Case Study on Effectively Identifying Technical Debt[C].Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering.ACM, 2013
[24] Codabux Z., Williams B.Managing Technical Debt:An Industrial Case Study[C].Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Managing Technical Debt.IEEE Press, 2013
[25] Martens M.L., Carvalho M.M.Key Factors of Sustainability in Project Management Context:A Survey Exploring the Project Managers'Perspective[J].International Journal of Project Management, 2017,35(6):1084-1102
[26] Schwartz P.The Art of the Long View:Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World[M].New York:Crown Business, Currency, 2012
[27] 杨志,祁凯.基于"情景-应对"的突发网络舆论事件演化博弈分析[J].情报科学, 2018,36(2):30-36
[28] 陈真玲,王文举.环境税制下政府与污染企业演化博弈分析[J].管理评论, 2017,29(5):226-236
[29] 谢识予.经济博弈论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2017
[30] Friedman D.Evolutionary Games in Economics[J].Econometrical, 1991,59(3):637-666