面向灾害情景推演的区域模型构建方法研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文重点研究适用于不同受灾地区的灾害情景及其演化推理的区域模型构建方法。区域灾害情景可通过灾害后果及其演化趋势来描述：承灾体状态直接体现灾害后果，承灾体之间的关联造成灾害后果演化趋势复杂多样。因此，本文以承灾体及其关联为核心，构建反映受灾区域特征的网络模型描述区域灾害情景。以系统视角分析了面向情景构建的区域构成要素，基于承灾体状态的演化属性定义了承灾体影响范围的“卵-黄”模型和承灾体之间的影响拓扑关联，提出了区域承灾体关联网络模型的生成方法，并利用所设计的区域算例说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。利用该方法事前构建反映受灾区域特征的灾害情景，有利于事前区域灾害损失风险的评估及事后灾害情景演化的推演。

关键词: 灾害情景, 承灾体状态, 影响拓扑关联, 区域风险, 演化模式

Abstract: This paper focuses on the construction method of hazard-affected regions in order to adapt to the disaster scenarios building and the inference of scenario evolution for regions with different characteristics. Disaster scenario of a region can be described through disaster consequence and evolution trends of disaster consequence. Since the states of elements at risk directly reflect the disaster consequence and the complicated interrelations between elements at risk lead to the diversity of evolution trends, elements at risk and interrelations between elements at risk are chosen as the core to construct the disaster scenario of a hazard-affected region. Firstly, from a system point of view, the components of disaster scenario are determined. Base on the evolution attribute of states of elements at risk, an Egg-Yolk model of the affected area of an element at risk is proposed and a kind of topological interrelation of impact among elements at risk is defined. On this basis, a generation process of regional interrelation network of elements at risk is proposed. Then three regions are designed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. The results show that constructing a disaster scenario with regional characteristics will help with not only the pre-event recognition and evaluation of regional disaster risk, but also the post-event analysis of disaster evolution trends.

Key words: disaster scenario, states of elements at risk, topological interrelation of impact, regional disaster risk, evolution mode

郄子君, 荣莉莉. 面向灾害情景推演的区域模型构建方法研究[J]. 管理评论, 2020, 32(10): 276-292.

Qie Zijun, Rong Lili. A Construction Method of Hazard-affected Region for Disaster Scenario Evolution[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(10): 276-292.

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