管理评论

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 76-86.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

资本流动与经济增长俱乐部趋同：以长三角城市群为例

周迪1, 钟绍军2   

  1. 1. 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院, 广州 510006;
    2. 湖北科技学院数学与统计学院, 咸宁 437100
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-14 出版日期:2020-05-28 发布日期:2020-06-03
  • 作者简介:周迪,广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院讲师,硕士生导师,博士;钟绍军,湖北科技学院数学与统计学院副教授,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划项目（GD15YYJ03）；广东省普通高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目（15Q18）；广东省软科学项目（2015A070703019；2016A070705058）。

Capital Flow and the Convergence of Economic Growth Clubs: A Case Study of Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta

Zhou Di1, Zhong Shaojun2   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006;
    2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100
  • Received:2017-08-14 Online:2020-05-28 Published:2020-06-03

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摘要：

本文通过理论模型阐述了资本流动对经济增长俱乐部趋同的影响过程，并以长三角城市群66县市1996—2014年的数据进行了实证检验——首先借助引力模型测算出各城市在城市群中的资本流动程度，随后采用本文构造的条件Markov链模型考察资本流动水平对俱乐部趋同的影响。研究发现：（1）当前长三角城市群经济增长存在明显的俱乐部趋同特征，即使经过五年时间的积累，高增长水平和低增长水平俱乐部趋同现象依然很明显；（2）在资本流动水平较低时，低增长俱乐部趋同程度加深，而资本流动水平较高时，高增长俱乐部趋同程度加深。考虑到长三角城市群中资本流动高水平城市主要处于经济增长高水平俱乐部，而低水平城市主要处于经济增长低水平俱乐部，从而较好解释了经济增长俱乐部趋同现象。因此长三角城市群应该进一步提高资本流动水平，以实现各俱乐部间的协调发展。

关键词: 俱乐部趋同, 资本流动, 长三角城市群, 条件Markov链

Abstract:

Through a theoretical model, this paper expounds how capital flow contributes the convergence of economic growth clubs, and uses the data of 66 counties and cities in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration form 1996 to 2014 to carry out an empirical test. Firstly the paper calculates the degree of capital flow of each city in the urban agglomeration with Gravity model, and then examines the influence of capital flow level on club convergence with the constructed conditional Markov chain model. The findings are as follows: (1) At present, the economic growth of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is featured by convergence of clubs of both high growth and low growth even though these clubs have developed for five years; (2) The convergence of the low-growth clubs is deep at the low level of capital flow while the convergence of the high-growth clubs is deep at the high level of capital flow. The fact that cities with high capital flows mainly come under high economic growth club while the low-growth cities mainly come under low-growth clubs is a good reflection of club convergence in the economic growth of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration. Therefore it is advised to raise the level of capital flow within Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration so as to achieve coordinated development among clubs.

Key words: club convergence, capital flow, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, conditional Markov chain