存款保险制度对国际资本流入影响的实证研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在一个自然实验的框架下，基于1991-2016年31个新兴市场国家的数据集，运用三重差分面板回归模型和工具变量法，从资本趋利性与资本安全性的双重视角考察了存款保险制度对国际资本流入的影响。研究发现，存款保险制度显著地促进了新兴市场国家的国际资本流入，且非危机时期的促进作用比危机时期更为显著；其中对于外商直接投资流入的影响程度显著高于证券投资与其他投资流入。从资本趋利性视角看，利率水平越高，存款保险制度对新兴市场国家国际资本流入的促进作用更为显著，利率水平是影响存款保险制度下新兴市场国家国际资本流入的显著因素；从资本安全性视角看，危机时期存款保险制度与国际资本流入显著正相关，表明存款保险制度能够在危机时期为国际资本提供安全保障，从而促进新兴市场国家的国际资本流入。研究结果对存款保险制度下各国资本流动管理具有重要的政策启示。

关键词: 存款保险制度, 国际资本流入, 自然实验, 新兴市场国家

Abstract:

In the framework of a natural experiment, this paper establishes a panel model with difference-in-differences estimation and instrumental variable, taking financial data set of balance of payments from 1991 to 2016 in 31 emerging market countries. Then, from the perspective of capital profitability and capital security, it examines how the introduction of deposit insurance system affects international capital inflows. The results show that the introduction of deposit insurance system has a positive and statistically significant effect on international capital inflows in emerging market countries, and the positive role in the non-crisis period is more significant than that in the crisis period. The promotion degree of foreign direct investment inflow is significantly higher than that of portfolio investment inflow or other investment inflow. On the one hand, from the perspective of capital profitability, the introduction of deposit insurance system has a more positive and statistically significant effect on international capital inflows with the higher level of interest rate, and interest rate is the significant factor affecting the international capital inflows of emerging market countries under the condition of deposit insurance system. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of capital security, deposit insurance system has a positive and statistically significant effect on the international capital inflows in crisis years, which shows that deposit insurance system could increase the international capital inflows of emerging market countries by providing financial security during the crisis period. The results of this study have important policy implication for emerging market countries to establish a prudent management framework of international capital inflows under the condition of deposit insurance system.

Key words: deposit insurance system, international capital inflows, natural experiment, emerging market countries

王晓博, 蔡志明, 辛飞飞. 存款保险制度对国际资本流入影响的实证研究[J]. , 2020, 32(2): 40-52.

Wang Xiaobo, Cai Zhiming, Xin Feifei. An Empirical Study on the Impact of Deposit Insurance System on International Capital Inflows[J]. , 2020, 32(2): 40-52.

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