管理评论

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 263-272.

• 应急管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发事件中多种异质信息在出现时间差异情境下的竞争传播研究——两阶段竞争模型

王治莹1,2, 梁敬1   

  1. 1. 安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院, 马鞍山 243032;
    2. 安徽工业大学公司治理与运营研究中心, 马鞍山 243032
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-15 出版日期:2019-10-28 发布日期:2019-11-05
  • 通讯作者: 王治莹(通讯作者),安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士
  • 作者简介:梁敬,安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（71704001；71601002）；安徽省自然科学基金项目（1808085QG224；1708085MG168）；安徽省高校人文社科研究重点项目（SK2019A0075）。

Competitive Propagation of Multi-heterogeneous Information with Occurrence Time Differences in Emergencies——Two-stage Competition Model

Wang Zhiying1,2, Liang Jing1   

  1. 1. School of Management Science&Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan 243032;
    2. Center for Corporate Governance and Operation, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan 243032
  • Received:2018-07-15 Online:2019-10-28 Published:2019-11-05

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摘要：

针对当前研究较少考虑到突发事件中多种异质信息在出现时间差异情境下的竞争传播规律和正式信息发布机制问题的现状，首先结合现实案例分析了该情境下的信息类型、传播阶段和竞争特点，进而给出了两阶段传播框架和本文研究问题；然后，基于Logistic增长模型和Lotka-Volterra竞争模型的构造思路，构建了非正式信息和正式信息的两阶段竞争传播模型，并推导了其平衡点和稳定性条件；最后，通过仿真并辅以案例分析验证了模型及其推导结果的有效性，进而考察了正式信息的发布时间和发布强度对多种异质信息间竞争关系演化的影响规律。

关键词: 突发事件, 出现时间差异, 异质信息, 竞争传播

Abstract:

In view of the fact that the existing studies rarely consider the competitive propagation pattern and formal publishing mechanism of multi-heterogeneous information that exist when there are occurrence time differences under emergencies, this paper first analyzes the information types, propagation stages and competitive characteristics in this situation in combination with real cases, and then proposes a two-stage propagation framework and the research theme. Next, based on the construction ideas of logistic growth model and LotkaVolterra competition model, a two-stage competition propagation model of informal and formal information is constructed, and the equilibrium points and their stability conditions of the model are derived afterwards. Finally, the simulation and case analysis are conducted to verify the validity of the proposed model and its derivation results, and then the way that publishing time and intensity of formal information influences the evolution of competitive relationships among multi-heterogeneous information is investigated.

Key words: emergencies, occurrence time differences, heterogeneous information, competitive propagation