空间外溢与金融发展的俱乐部趋同:以长三角城市群为例

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 72-81.

空间外溢与金融发展的俱乐部趋同:以长三角城市群为例

周迪¹, 钟绍军²

1. 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院, 广州 510006;
2. 湖北科技学院数学与统计学院, 咸宁 437100

收稿日期:2016-07-19 出版日期:2018-09-28 发布日期:2018-09-29
作者简介:周迪,广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院讲师,博士;钟绍军,湖北科技学院数学与统计学院副教授,博士。
基金资助:
广东省哲学社会科学"十三五"规划项目（GD17YYJ03）；国家统计局全国统计科学研究一般项目（2017LY55）。

Spatial Spillover and the Club Convergence of Financial Development: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta

Zhou Di¹, Zhong Shaojun²

1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006;
2. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100

Received:2016-07-19 Online:2018-09-28 Published:2018-09-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章将分布动态学模型引入金融发展的俱乐部趋同研究中，基于扩展的Markov链、空间Markov链模型对长三角城市群72个市县2003-2013年间金融发展的俱乐部趋同时空规律进行了研究，研究发现：四类水平俱乐部在整体水平分布中的相对位置比较稳定，随着时间的积累，这种现象逐渐有所缓解，但对于高低水平俱乐部而言仍较明显，可见长三角城市群金融发展存在"俱乐部趋同"现象；不同金融发展水平的邻近地区对本地区金融发展水平有显著影响，并且长三角城市群金融发展水平呈现出越来越显著的"高-高集聚"以及"低-低集聚"空间分布特征，这为长三角城市群金融发展的"趋同特征"给出了空间上的解释，长三角城市群金融发展趋同特征正逐渐由"俱乐部趋同"向"俱乐部空间趋同"转变。在上述研究基础上，对如何促进长三角城市群金融协调发展提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 金融发展, 俱乐部趋同, Markov链模型

Abstract:

This paper introduces the Extended Distribution Dynamics model into the study of club convergence of financial development, and analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of club convergence of financial development of 72 cities and counties in Yangtze River Delta city cluster from 2003 to 2013 based on the extended Markov chain model and spatial Markov chain model. The study finds:The relative position of the four kinds of clubs in the whole distribution of financial development level is relatively stable, which will gradually ease slightly over time, but it is still evident for the high-level club and the low-level club. This means that there is a club convergence phenomenon for the financial development in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The neighboring regions with different financial development level have significant influence on the financial development in the local area. At the same time, the spatial distribution characteristic of financial development level in the urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta show "High-high concentration" and "low-low concentration" which is more and more obvious. This gives a spatial explanation of "convergence characteristics" of the finan-cial development level in the Yangtze River Delta region. Namely, the convergence characteristics of financial development in the Yangtze River Delta cities are gradually changing from "club convergence" to "club space convergence". Finally, this paper puts for-ward some policy recommendations about how to promote the coordinated development of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: financial development, club convergence, Markov chain model

周迪, 钟绍军. 空间外溢与金融发展的俱乐部趋同:以长三角城市群为例[J]. , 2018, 30(9): 72-81.

Zhou Di, Zhong Shaojun. Spatial Spillover and the Club Convergence of Financial Development: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. , 2018, 30(9): 72-81.

参考文献

[1] 黄砚玲,龙志和,林光平. 中国区域金融发展收敛性的空间经济计量研究——来自浙江省67个县市区1997-2008年的实证分析[J]. 上海经济研究, 2010,(4):65-71
[2] Ramsey E. A Mathematical Theory of Saving[J]. Journal of Economics, 1928,38(152):543-559
[3] Bernard A. B., Durlauf S. N. Convergence in International Output[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1993,10(2):97-108
[4] Bernard A. B., Durlauf S. N. Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1994,71(1-2):161-173
[5] Lim L. K., McAleer M. Convergence and Catching up in ASEAN:A Comparative Analysis[J]. Applied Economics, 2004,36(2):137-153
[6] Pesaran M. H. A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2007,138(1):312-355
[7] Barro R. J., Sala-I-Martin X. Convergence Across U.S. States and Regions[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991,22(1):107-182
[8] Barro R. J., Sala-I-Martin X. Convergence[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1992,100(2):223-251
[9] Apergis N., Christou C., Miller S. Convergence Patterns in Financial Development:Evidence from Club Convergence[J]. Empiri-cal Economics, 2012,43(3):1011-1040
[10] Quah D. T. Galton's Fallacy and Tests of Convergence Hypothesis[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1993,95(4):427-443
[11] Li H. Dynamics of Income Distribution across Chinese Provinces during 1978-98[J]. Journal of Chinese Economic & Business Studies, 2003,1(2):145-157
[12] Quah D. T. Twin Peaks:Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics[J]. Economic Journal, 1996,106(437):1045-1055
[13] Quah D. T. Empirics for Growth and Distribution:Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Clubs[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 1997,2(1):27-59
[14] Dan B. D. Convergence Clubs and Subsistence Economies[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1997,55(1):155-171
[15] Phillips P. C. B., Sul D. Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests[J]. Econometrica, 2007,75(6):1771-1855
[16] Pan X., Liu Q., Peng X. Spatial Club Convergence of Regional Energy Efficiency in China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2015,51(4):25-30
[17] Herrerias M. J. World Energy Intensity Convergence Revisited:A Weighted Distribution Dynamics Approach[J]. Energy Policy, 2012,49(10):383-399
[18] 潘雄锋,史晓辉. 基于专利指标的中国区域创新趋同的时空演变特征分析[J]. 管理评论, 2012,24(2):116-121
[19] 孙玉涛. 基于分布动态学的跨国创新俱乐部收敛研究[J]. 管理评论, 2013,25(6):59-66
[20] Aghion P., Howitt P., Mayer-Foulkes D. The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence:Theory and Evidence[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005,120(1):173-222
[21] Apergis N., Christou C., Payne J. Political and Institutional Factors in the Convergence of International Equity Markets:Evidence from the Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal, 2011,39(1):7-18
[22] Caporale G. M., Erdogan B., Kuzin V. Testing Stock Market Convergence:A Non-linear Factor Approach[J]. Empirica, 2015, 42(3):481-498
[23] 陆文喜,李国平. 中国区域金融发展的收敛性分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2004,(2):125-128
[24] 赵伟,马瑞永. 中国区域金融发展的收敛性、成因及政策建议[J]. 中国软科学, 2006,(2):94-101
[25] 石盛林. 我国县域金融发展水平收敛性问题的实证研究[J]. 中央财经大学学报, 2010,(12):29-32
[26] 蒲勇健,韩伟. 地理空间效应下中国区域金融发展的俱乐部趋同研究——对321个地级市的实证分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2012,(11):39-44
[27] 许治,陈丽玉. 国家级创新型城市创新能力的动态演进——基于技术成就指数的研究[J]. 管理评论, 2016,28(10):58-66
[28] 周迪. "量"和"质"角度的中国金融规模地区差距及分布的动态演进——基于Dagum分解与扩展的分布动态学模型[J]. 上海经济研究, 2015,(1):19-29
[29] Rey S. J., Montouri B. D. US Regional Income Convergence:A Spatial Econometric Perspective[J]. Regional Studies, 1999,33(2):143-156
[30] Le G. J. Space-time Analysis of GDP Disparities among European Regions:A Markov Chains Approach[J]. International Region-al Science Review, 2004,27(2):138-163
[31] 李红,王彦晓. 金融集聚、空间溢出与城市经济增长——基于中国286个城市空间面板杜宾模型的经验研究[J]. 国际金融研究, 2014,(2):89-96
[32] 余泳泽,刘大勇. 我国区域创新效率的空间外溢效应与价值链外溢效应——创新价值链视角下的多维空间面板模型研究[J]. 管理世界, 2013,(7):6-20
[33] Goldsmith R. Financial Structure and Economic Development[M]. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1969
[34] 顾洪梅,何彬. 中国省域金融发展与碳排放研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012,(8):22-27
[35] 张成思,朱越腾,芦哲. 对外开放对金融发展的抑制效应之谜[J]. 金融研究, 2013,(6):16-30
[36] 黄志勇,万祥龙,许承明. 金融发展对我国对外直接投资的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J]. 世界经济与政治论坛, 2015,(1):122-135
[37] Boyreau-Debray G. Financial Intermediation and Growth:Chinese Style[R]. The World Bank, 2003
[38] 周丽丽,杨刚强,江洪.中国金融发展速度与经济增长可持续性——基于区域差异的视角[J]. 中国软科学, 2014,(2):58-69
[39] 部慧,梁小珍,皮理. 我国金融业区域发展差异的空间统计分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2014,34(5):1171-1180