谁是“高龄”农民工——基于流动人口监测调查的数据分析

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 271-280.

谁是“高龄”农民工——基于流动人口监测调查的数据分析

靳小怡, 胡钊源, 顾东东

西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 西安 710001

收稿日期:2017-05-15 出版日期:2018-07-28 发布日期:2018-07-21
通讯作者: 胡钊源(通讯作者),西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院博士研究生
作者简介:靳小怡,西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;顾东东,西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目（13&ZD044）；陕西省社科基金面向"十三五"重大理论与现实问题研究（2016ZDA05）。

Who Are “Aged” Migrant Workers——Data Analysis Based on Floating Population Monitoring Survey

Jin Xiaoyi, Hu Zhaoyuan, Gu Dongdong

School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710001

Received:2017-05-15 Online:2018-07-28 Published:2018-07-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

年龄结构的改变对农民工传统两代次划分方式提出严峻挑战，精确合理的年龄划分方法是目前学术界的研究重点。本文引入机器学习中market basket analysis （购物篮分析法），利用2013-2015年国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口动态监测数据，从四大维度构建指标体系，通过多视角分析，进行"高龄"农民工的识别与界定。本文发现：农民工在45岁开始凸显"高龄"特征，在就业、医疗、收入等诸多方面受到挤压，不同于既有高龄农民工"50岁以上"的设定；以传统年龄界定制定农民工扶持与保障政策，会使农民工的需求与发展产生错位，不利于劳动力市场的资源配置与城镇化推进。据此，在明确"高龄"农民工群体及其特征后，提出相关政策建议。

关键词: 高龄, 农民工, 年龄界定, market basket analysis, 流动人口动态监测数据

Abstract:

Change in migrant workers' age structure makes it challenging to divide them into the traditional two generations. A precise and reasonable age division becomes a focus of academic researches now. Using method of Market Basket Analysis from machine learning, based on the 2013-2015 floating population monitoring data from national health and family planning commission, this paper constructs a four-dimension index system and identify aged migrant workers through a multi-perspective analysis. Different from the previous "over 50 years-old" definition of aged workers, the results show that migrant workers began to present prominent "aged" characteristics at the age of 45, such as unemployment risk, poor health care and income decline. Therefore, supportive and safeguard policy formulated according to traditional age division will dislocate aged migrant worker's demand. And this will have bad influence on resource allocation in the labor market and advancement of urbanization. Consequently, after defining "aged" migrant workers and summarizing characteristics of this group, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations.

Key words: aged, migrant workers, age boundary, market basket analysis, floating population monitoring data

靳小怡, 胡钊源, 顾东东. 谁是“高龄”农民工——基于流动人口监测调查的数据分析[J]. , 2018, 30(7): 271-280.

Jin Xiaoyi, Hu Zhaoyuan, Gu Dongdong. Who Are “Aged” Migrant Workers——Data Analysis Based on Floating Population Monitoring Survey[J]. , 2018, 30(7): 271-280.

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