›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 112-118.

• 投入占用产出技术及其应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

“新常态”经济增长的贸易效应:基于中国DPN GEM模型的研究

裴建锁1, 姚顺利2   

  1. 1. 对外经济贸易大学国际贸易学系, 北京 100029;
    2. 应用国际贸易研究所, 北京 100010
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-20 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2018-05-29
  • 作者简介:裴建锁,对外经济贸易大学国际贸易学系副教授,博士生导师,博士;姚顺利,应用国际贸易研究所所长,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41675139;71673269;71433002);对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目(17JQ11)。

Trade Impact of China's Transition to the ‘New Normal’:The Construction and Application of China's DPN GEM Model

Pei Jiansuo1, Yao Shunli2   

  1. 1. Department of International Trade, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029;
    2. Institute for Applied International Trade, Beijing 100010
  • Received:2016-09-20 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

摘要:

中国当前正在进行的结构调整对贸易的影响效果存在较大争议。本文应用新颖的反映加工贸易特性的投入产出表,构建DPN GEM模型研究结构调整的贸易效应。首先,论证了加工贸易调整(逐步减少加工贸易占比)将会降低中国贸易增速,证实了文献中将贸易增速下降归因于结构性调整,特别是中美加工贸易安排已基本结束的解释。特别的,考虑到中国当前正在进行的另一种结构调整,即中国经济增长进入"新常态",本研究显示该调整亦将减少贸易。然而,"新常态"增长确切无疑的提高了消费者的消费水平和福利;同时,有可能带来更高的真实GDP增长。

关键词: 结构调整, 新常态, 贸易效应, DPN GEM模型

Abstract:

In this paper, we use a China trade CGE model, known as DPN GEM, to study the impact of China's structural reform on trade. It demonstrates that processing trade adjustment slows down trade, which is in line with previously documented findings. Further-more, China's transition to the ‘new normal’ is also trade contractionary. The new growth model unambiguously raises household welfare with more domestic consumption. It is likely to generate a higher growth rate for real GDP as well.

Key words: trade structure change, new normal, trade impact, DPN GEM model