管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 45-57.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    

贸易限制性政策与全球价值链网络韧性

乔小勇1, 郑闽荟1, 侯婷彧2   

  1. 1. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100124;
    2. 中国人民大学经济学院, 北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2025-06-13 发布日期:2026-09-11
  • 作者简介:乔小勇，北京工业大学经济与管理学院研究员，博士生导师，博士；郑闽荟，北京工业大学经济与管理学院，硕士；侯婷彧（通讯作者），中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目（23AGL036）。

Trade Restrictive Policies and Global Value Chain Network Resilience

Qiao Xiaoyong1, Zheng Minhui1, Hou Tingyu2   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124;
    2. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
  • Received:2025-06-13 Published:2026-09-11

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摘要： 在全球经贸环境持续动荡和贸易保护主义不断升温的背景下，贸易限制性政策已成为影响全球价值链稳定运行的重要外生冲击因素。本文基于OECD-AMNE投入产出数据构建区分内外资企业的全球价值链网络，并利用GTA全球贸易预警数据库量化贸易限制性措施的强度与范围，从国家-行业-内外资企业的多维异质性视角系统评估贸易限制性政策对全球价值链网络韧性的影响。本文通过研究发现：①贸易限制性政策对内资企业和外资企业的全球价值链网络韧性均发挥显著的抑制作用。②贸易限制性政策对所属不同发展水平的国家及经济体、所属不同行业部门、遭受不同类型贸易限制性政策的内资企业与外资企业全球价值链网络韧性产生异质性影响效应。③贸易限制性政策通过提高中间品贸易成本、抑制企业技术溢出效应、降低全球价值链参与度等渠道对内资企业与外资企业在全球价值链网络中的韧性产生负向影响。④贸易限制性政策对内、外资企业参与复杂价值链活动的网络韧性均产生负向影响，而仅对外资企业参与简单价值链活动的网络韧性产生负向影响。本文的研究结论对维护稳定的全球经贸格局与构建具有韧性的产业链、供应链具有重要现实意义。

关键词: 贸易限制性政策, 全球价值链, 网络韧性, 内外资企业

Abstract: Against the backdrop of persistent turbulence in the global economic and trade environment and the escalating trend of trade protectionism, trade restrictive policies have emerged as a significant exogenous shock factor affecting the stable operation of global value chains. This paper constructs a global value chain network distinguishing between domestic and foreign-invested enterprises based on OECD-AMNE input-output data. Utilising the GTA Global Trade Alert database to quantify the intensity and scope of trade restrictive measures, it systematically assesses the impact of such policies on the resilience of global value chain networks from a multidimensional perspective of heterogeneity across countries, industries, and domestic versus foreign-invested enterprises. The study finds that: (1) Trade restrictive policies exert a significant dampening effect on the resilience of both domestic and foreign-invested enterprises within global value chain networks. (2) Trade restrictive policies produce heterogeneous impacts on the resilience of domestic and foreign-invested enterprises within global value chain networks, depending on the development level of their home countries or economies, their sectoral affiliation, and the specific type of trade restrictive policy imposed. (3) Trade restrictive policies exert negative impacts on the resilience of both domestic and foreign-invested enterprises within global value chain networks through channels including increased intermediate goods trade costs, suppression of technological spillover effects, and reduced participation in global value chains. (4) Trade restrictive policies exert negative impacts on the network resilience of both domestic and foreign-invested enterprises participating in complex value chain activities, while only adversely affecting the network resilience of foreign-invested enterprises engaged in simple value chain activities. The findings of this study have important practical significance for maintaining a stable global economic and trade pattern and building resilient industrial and supply chains.

Key words: trade restrictive policies, global value chains, network resilience, domestic and foreign-invested enterprises