管理评论 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 3-13.

• 经济与金融管理 •    

限行政策出台、交通行为塑造与碳减排效应

高子茗, 吕洋   

  1. 南开大学经济学院, 天津 300071
  • 收稿日期:2024-02-28 发布日期:2026-04-11
  • 作者简介:高子茗,南开大学经济学院博士研究生;吕洋,南开大学经济学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    全国教育科学规划教育部重点课题(DIA220388)。

The Introduction of Traffic Restriction Policy, the Shaping of Traffic Behavior and the Effect of Carbon Reduction

Gao Ziming, Lv Yang   

  1. School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071
  • Received:2024-02-28 Published:2026-04-11

摘要: 党的二十届三中全会明确提出完善生态文明制度体系,协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长,这需要在推动绿色生产方式的同时鼓励形成低碳生活方式。本文以各城市机动车限行政策实施为切入点,利用多时点双重差分法,聚焦探讨其除缓解交通拥堵和空气污染外,产生的碳减排绩效。研究结果表明,限行政策实施通过降低居民贷款购车意愿、转向其他公共交通出行方式、减少道路车辆数量,减少了碳排放总量。除此之外,地区经济特征、产业发展、交通风险、财政模式均会对限行政策的实施效果产生异质性影响。因此,健全绿色低碳发展机制,不仅需要出台与实施此类“命令-控制”型政策,还需要协调生产、生活、生态发展,健全公共交通和道路设施体系,倡导居民形成绿色低碳的出行方式。

关键词: 限行政策, 碳排放, 低碳出行, 交通通勤

Abstract: The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has clearly put forward the goal of enhancing the system of ecological civilization and concurrently advancing carbon reduction, pollution mitigation, green development, and sustainable growth. This initiative calls for the promotion of green, low-carbon production practices alongside fostering the adoption of low-carbon living patterns. This paper focuses on the implementation of vehicle driving restrictions across different cities, employing a multi-time-point difference-in-differences approach to assess these policies' additional impact on carbon emission reductions, beyond their effects on traffic congestion and air quality improvement. Our findings indicate that such driving restrictions effectively lower overall carbon emissions by curtailing the number of vehicles used for daily commutes, dampening the public's inclination to rely on private cars, and steering them toward more environmentally friendly modes of transportation. It is noteworthy that regional economic traits, industrial composition, traffic conditions, financial frameworks, and urban layouts display varying degrees of diversity. Consequently, to bolster local mechanisms for green and low-carbon development, it is imperative to not only enforce “command-and-control” measures but also harmonize the interplay between production, lifestyle, and environmental conservation. Enhancing the public transit and road infrastructure systems and endorsing green, low-carbon travel options among the populace are critical actions towards this end.

Key words: traffic restriction policy, carbon emissions, low-carbon travel, transportation commuting