管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 67-76.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

宏观经济冲击对中国跨境并购的影响分析

王修臻子1,2,3, 魏云捷1,3, 王琳君2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
    3. 中国科学院预测科学研究中心, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-12 发布日期:2025-07-30
  • 作者简介:王修臻子，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院、中国科学院大学经济与管理学院、中国科学院预测科学研究中心博士研究生;魏云捷（通讯作者），中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院、中国科学院预测科学研究中心副研究员，博士;王琳君，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（72171223；71988101）。

Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Chinese Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions

Wang Xiuzhenzi1,2,3, Wei Yunjie1,3, Wang Linjun2   

  1. 1. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    3. Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2022-05-12 Published:2025-07-30

PDF (PC)

8

摘要： 随着全球化一体化的推进，跨境并购在国际产出中的地位愈加重要。现有对于跨境并购影响因素的研究大部分围绕企业层面特质或产业特征展开，较少关注宏观经济因素冲击所带来的影响。本文借助Copula熵筛选出与我国跨境并购量密切相关的经济因素，进而采用向量自回归模型和误差修正模型重点研究这些宏观经济因素的冲击对我国企业跨境并购活动趋势的动态影响。研究结果表明，我国经济增速、宏观经济流动性、宏观经济风险以及汇率是影响企业跨境并购决策的重要经济变量，各经济变量的影响程度有差异，经济增速的上升短期内会促进我国境外并购业务发展，而长期则转为微弱的负面影响。基于实证研究可以总结得到关于投资者和决策者相应的管理启示，这对于后疫情时代正确引导中国企业积极向境外扩展、恢复对外投资动力等显得尤为重要。

关键词: 跨境并购, 宏观经济冲击, Copula熵, 误差修正模型, 脉冲响应分析

Abstract: With the advancement of globalization, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) play an increasingly important role in global output. Most of the existing study on the influencing factors of cross-border M&As is carried out from the perspective of enterprise-level or industry-level characteristics, and the effects of macroeconomic are ignored. This study uses Copula entropy to screen out the economic factors that are closely related to the volume of Chinese cross-border M&As, and then uses the vector autoregressive model and the error correction model to focus on the dynamic impact of these economic factors on the trend of cross-border M&A activities of Chinese enterprises. We find that Chinese economic growth rate, macroeconomic liquidity, macroeconomic risks and exchange rates are four important economic variables that affect enterprises’ cross-border M&A decisions, and the degree of influence of each economic variable varies. Positive swing in economic growth will promote Chinese overseas M&A business in the short term, while it will turn into a weak negative impact in the long run. We get management implications for both investors and policymakers from empirical studying, which is particularly essential in the post Covid-19 period for correctly guiding Chinese enterprises to actively explore their overseas market and regain the momentum of cross-border investment.

Key words: cross-border mergers and acquisitions, macroeconomic shocks, Copula entropy, error correction models, impulse response analysis