管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 64-74.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    

“一带一路”共建国家大豆生产潜力及其对中国大豆贸易主导权的影响研究

苏丹华1,2, 倪国华1, 鲍勤3,4   

  1. 1. 北京工商大学经济学院, 北京 100048;
    2. 北京物资学院经济学院, 北京 101149;
    3. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    4. 中国科学院预测科学研究中心, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-27 发布日期:2025-01-18
  • 作者简介:苏丹华，北京工商大学经济学院博士后，北京物资学院经济学院讲师，博士；倪国华（通讯作者），北京工商大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，博士；鲍勤，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院、中国科学院预测科学研究中心副研究员，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目（21ZDA055）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（72073008；72073127）。

Soybean Production Potential of BRI Countries and Its Impact on China’s Dominance in Soybean Trade

Su Danhua1,2, Ni Guohua1, Bao Qin3,4   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048;
    2. School of Economics, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149;
    3. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    4. Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2022-06-27 Published:2025-01-18

PDF (PC)

15

摘要： 加强与“一带一路”共建国家的粮食合作为提升中国大豆贸易主导权创造了有利条件。本文利用GAEZ模型，基于三种增产情景量化测算了RCP4.5气候条件下，“一带一路”共建国家2011—2040年（2020s）、2041—2070年（2050s）和2071—2100年（2080s）三段时期的大豆生产潜力和出口潜力，并研究了最佳情景下的大豆出口对中国大豆贸易主导权的影响。结果表明：“一带一路”共建国家大豆生产潜力为5036万吨~9892万吨，增产潜力可达2020年产量的1.7~4倍；对中国的大豆出口潜力为863万吨~5719万吨，在加强灌溉的条件下可促进中国大豆进口集中度降为91%，在开发可耕地条件下可降至54%，中国的大豆贸易主导权将有较大提升，但巴西、美国和阿根廷仍将处于中国大豆进口来源国中的主体地位。本文为中国与“一带一路”共建国家开展大豆生产与贸易合作提供了理论支撑与决策支持。

关键词: 大豆, 生产潜力, 出口潜力, 一带一路, GAEZ, 贸易主导权

Abstract: Strengthening grain cooperation with countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would help to enhance China’s dominance in soybean trade. By applying GAEZ model with three simulation scenarios under the RCP4.5 assumption, this paper estimates the soybean production potential and export potential of BRI countries in 2011—2040 (2020s), 2041—2070 (2050s) and 2071—2100 (2080s), and studies the impact on China’s dominance in soybean trade under the optimum scenario. The results indicate that the soybean production potential in BRI countries is 50.36 million to 98.92 million tons, and the potential production may reach 1.7 to 4 times the soybean production in 2020. Moreover, the potential export from BRI countries to China is 8.63 million to 57.19 million tons. The concentration rate of China’s soybean import could be reduced to 91% if BRI countries strengthen their irrigation, and further to 54% if they develop their arable land. Despite China’s dominance of soybean trade will be greatly improved, Brazil, the United States and Argentina will still remain the dominant sources of China’s soybean import. The methods and conclusions of this study provide theoretical and policy supporting for improving cooperation between China and BRI countries in soybean production and trade.

Key words: soybeans, production potential, export potential, Belt and Road Initiative, GAEZ, trade dominance