“一带一路”倡议与WTO跨文化争端网络演进——基于社会计算科学的视角

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着全球经济的不断发展，跨文化经贸合作成为各国参与和制定国际规则的重要方式。“一带一路”倡议在跨文化经贸合作中产生的协同效应日益显著。在我国提出“一带一路”倡议10周年与加入世界贸易组织20周年的“双十周年”叠加之际，本文从社会计算科学的视角，结合跨文化经贸合作探讨了“一带一路”倡议对WTO争端网络演进的作用机制。研究结合古诺均衡与斯塔伯格均衡分析了动态博弈机制下跨文化经贸谈判耐心优势对制度进入壁垒的影响，并结合马尔科夫链蒙泰卡罗模型预测分析了“一带一路”倡议对WTO跨文化争端网络的演进机制，同时结合多主体模型对多边跨文化经贸合作机制进行了模拟仿真。研究发现，“一带一路”倡议通过包容多元文化差异，推动WTO争端网络从单极主导的克拉克哈特风筝形态向更加对称的蝴蝶型分布演进。研究为“一带一路”倡议充分发挥制度公共产品优势积极推动开放包容的WTO跨文化经贸合作体系建设提供了重要参考。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, WTO争端网络, 跨文化经贸合作, 社会计算科学

Abstract: With development of global economy, cross-cultural business cooperation offers further support to global involvement and policy making across countries. Belt and Road initiative brings increasing synergy to cross-cultural business cooperation. Given that this year is both the 10th anniversary of China launching its Belt and Road initiative and the 20th anniversary of China’s entry into WTO, this research studies the effect of Belt and Road initiative on WTO dispute settlement network by using social computation, analyzes the effect of cross-cultural business negotiation on institutional entry barrier based on Cournot Equilibrium and Stackelberg Equilibrium, and forecasts the effect of Belt and Road initiative on evolvement of WTO dispute settlement network in cross-cultural business cooperation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling. This research further simulates the multilateral cooperation in cross-cultural business cooperation based on multi-agent based modeling. It is found that Belt & Road initiative mitigates the effect of cultural difference on WTO dispute settlement network. This research helps to further understand structuring an open and compatible WTO cross-cultural cooperation system by development of ecosystem specific advantage based on Belt and Road initiative.

Key words: Belt and Road initiative, WTO dispute settlement network, cross-cultural business cooperation, social computation

霍达, 肖皓, 张晓涛, 易靖韬, 李君航. “一带一路”倡议与WTO跨文化争端网络演进——基于社会计算科学的视角[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(1): 28-39.

Huo Da, Xiao Hao, Zhang Xiaotao, Yi Jingtao, Li Junhang. Belt and Road Initiative and Evolvement of Cross-cultural WTO Dispute Settlement Network—From the Perspective of Social Computation[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(1): 28-39.

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