人云亦云抑或独树一帜？——基于风险感知视角的不确定性与分析师羊群行为

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文探讨了经济不确定性对分析师羊群行为的影响,并将不确定性按风险感知程度的高低分为国内和国际两个层面来考察这种影响是否存在不对称性。结果显示,国内不确定性因更高的风险感知引发分析师羊群行为,而国际不确定性因更低的风险感知引发分析师勇敢行为。进一步检验发现,不确定性与分析师羊群行为的关系并非由实质的经营风险不同而导致,更多来自心理层面的感知;分析师实地调研并未影响不确定性与羊群行为的关系,排除了伪羊群的影响机制。横截面异质性检验发现,国际收入占比加剧了国际不确定性影响下的分析师勇敢行为,明星分析师抑制了国内不确定性下的羊群行为,女性分析师则同时抑制了国内不确定性下的羊群行为和国际不确定性的勇敢行为。本研究从分析师视角拓展了不确定性的经济后果研究,从地理层面考察了不同风险感知程度下分析师的行为差异,为分析师羊群行为的成因提供了新的研究视角与实证证据。

关键词: 分析师羊群行为, 不确定性, 风险感知

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of economic uncertainty on analysts’ herding behavior. In order to explore potential asymmetry effects in this relationship, we examine the impact of both domestic and international uncertainty levels on herding behavior, considering analysts’ risk perception. The results show that domestic uncertainty induces analysts’ herding behavior due to higher risk perception, while international uncertainty induces analysts’ brave behavior due to lower risk perception. Further tests find that the relationship between uncertainty and analysts’ herding behavior is not caused by differences in actual business risks, but rather by differences in psychological perception levels. Analyst site visits do not affect the relationship between uncertainty and herding behavior, excluding the possibility of pseudo herding. Cross-sectional heterogeneity tests find that the proportion of foreign revenue intensifies analysts’ brave forecasting behavior under the influence of international uncertainty; star analysts inhibit herding forecasting behavior under domestic uncertainty; and female analysts exhibit a diminished tendency either for herding forecasting behavior under domestic uncertainty or for brave forecasting behavior under international uncertainty. This study expands our understanding of the economic consequences of an uncertain environment by focusing on analysts’ behavior. By examining variations in analysts’ behavior under different levels of risk perception from a geographical perspective, we provide a novel research perspective and empirical evidence for the causes of analysts’ herding behavior.

Key words: analysts' herding behavior, economic uncertainty, risk perception

杨晶, 游家兴, 熊艳. 人云亦云抑或独树一帜？——基于风险感知视角的不确定性与分析师羊群行为[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(3): 17-29.

Yang Jing, You Jiaxing, Xiong Yan. Herding or Boldness? The Uncertainty and the Analysts' Herding Behavior from a Risk Perception Perspective[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(3): 17-29.

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