管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 303-314.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

房价、土地出让与公共服务资本化——基于全国284个城市数据的实证研究

兰峰1,2, 徐辉英1,2, 达卉莉1,2, 黄歆1,2   

  1. 1. 西安建筑科技大学管理学院, 西安 710055;
    2. 陕西省房地产业绿色发展与机制创新研究中心, 西安 710055
  • 收稿日期:2021-05-31 出版日期:2023-05-28 发布日期:2023-06-21
  • 通讯作者: 达卉莉（通讯作者），西安建筑科技大学管理学院博士研究生。
  • 作者简介:兰峰，西安建筑科技大学管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士；徐辉英，西安建筑科技大学管理学院硕士研究生；黄歆，西安建筑科技大学管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目（71874136；72174162）。

Housing Price, Land Transfer and Capitalization of Public Services——Based on Empirical Evidence from 284 Cities in China

Lan Feng1,2, Xu Huiying1,2, Da Huili1,2, Huang Xin1,2   

  1. 1. School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710055;
    2. Shaanxi Provincial Real Estate Industry Green Development and Mechanism Innovation Research Center, Xi'an 710055
  • Received:2021-05-31 Online:2023-05-28 Published:2023-06-21

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摘要： 厘清房价、土地出让与公共服务之间的影响关系，能有效指引公共服务补短板、扩供给和提质量，助力解决民生矛盾、促进社会公平。本文结合全国284个城市的数据，在测度城市公共服务水平的基础上，分析了土地出让对公共服务供给结构的影响，并利用时空地理加权回归模型研究了公共服务对房价的资本化效应，最后探究了土地供给量对公共服务资本化水平的影响。研究发现，在财政分权和官员晋升的双重激励下，地方政府的财政支出更偏向于经济性公共服务；公共服务对住房价格具有显著的资本化效应，在时序上呈先上升后下降的波动趋势，说明公共服务水平与资本化效力之间存在非线性关系，空间上则呈南高北低的分布格局。进一步研究发现，土地供给量的增加能有效降低公共服务资本化效应；出让收入的偏向性支出影响公共服务供给结构与土地供给量变化致使资本化水平提升或降低是土地出让影响公共服务资本化的两条路径。应尽快建立“人地挂钩”的土地供应制度，积极探索土地价值二次捕获的财政工具，完善政绩考核制度，从源头上解决土地供需空间错配，摆脱地方政府财政困境。

关键词: 土地出让, 公共服务, 资本化

Abstract: Finding out the relationship between housing prices, land and public services can effectively guide public services to make up for shortcomings, expand supply and improve quality, and help solve livelihood issues and promote social equity. Based on the data of 284 cities in China, this paper analyzes the impact of land transfer on the supply structure of public services on the basis of measuring the level of urban public services, studies the capitalization effect of public services on housing prices by using the spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression model, and finally explores the impact of land supply on the capitalization level of public services. The study finds that under the dual incentives of fiscal decentralization and official promotion, the fiscal expenditure of local governments is more inclined to economic public services; public services have a significant capitalization effect on housing prices, which fluctuates in a trend of first rising and then falling, indicating that there is a nonlinear relationship between the level of public services and the effectiveness of capitalization, and the spatial distribution pattern is high in the south and low in the north. Further research shows that the increase in land supply can effectively reduce the capitalization effect of public services; the biased expenditure of transfer income affects the structure of public service supply and the change of land supply, so an increase or decrease in the level of capitalization become the two ways for land transfer to affect the capitalization of public services. We should establish a land supply system that is "linked to people and land" as soon as possible, actively explore financial tools for the secondary capture of land value, improve the performance appraisal system, solve the spatial mismatch between land supply and demand and the financial difficulties of local governments from the source.

Key words: land transfer, public services, capitalization