管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 3-15.

• 经济与金融管理 •    下一篇

考虑省际贸易结构的中国碳排放变化的驱动因素分析

潘晨1, 李善同2, 何建武2, 周鹏3, 周德群4   

  1. 1. 清华大学公共管理学院, 北京 100084;
    2. 国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部, 北京 100010;
    3. 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院, 青岛 266580;
    4. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 南京 211106
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-05 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-02-27
  • 作者简介:潘晨,清华大学公共管理学院博士后,博士;李善同,国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部研究员,硕士;何建武,国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部研究员,博士;周鹏,中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;周德群,南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(71934007;71834003;71733003);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(71625005)。

Analysis of the Driving Forces of Changes in China’s CO2 Emissions Considering Inter-provincial Trade Structure

Pan Chen1, Li Shantong2, He Jianwu2, Zhou Peng3, Zhou Dequn4   

  1. 1. School of Public Policy & Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084;
    2. Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100010;
    3. School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580;
    4. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106
  • Received:2021-02-05 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-02-27

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摘要： 中国是二氧化碳排放大国且具有较强的减排决心,其碳排放增长的驱动因素受到广泛关注。已有研究较少考虑国内区域间贸易结构变化的影响,而随着经济发展,该因素显得愈发重要。为此,本研究纳入省际贸易结构,采用基于中国省级多区域投入产出模型的两阶段六因素结构分解分析方法,探究2002—2012年这一重要发展时期内中国碳排放变化的驱动因素。结果表明,2007—2012年期间,省际贸易结构变化呈高碳化态势;最终需求规模对碳排放增长的促进作用由2002—2007年期间的出口及东部投资拉动为主,转变为各省份投资的普遍拉动。部门层面,电力生产的碳排放强度持续改善,非金属矿物制品、金属压延和加工品等也有不同程度改善;但建筑业与服务业用电量有所上升。未来,可将生产侧碳排放强度和生产技术改善与需求侧需求主体偏好的倒逼相结合,并促进地区间基于产业链的低碳发展合作。

关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 驱动因素, 省际贸易结构, 结构分解分析, 多区域投入产出模型

Abstract: China is a major CO2 emitter and has a strong determination to reduce its CO2 emissions. Therefore, the driving forces for the increase in its emissions have caused attention widely. Meanwhile, the inter-regional trade structure has become a potential significant factor for China’s emission growth, which has not been investigated in the existing studies. To this end, this study takes changes in the inter-provincial trade structure into consideration and adopts a two-stage six-factor structural decomposition analysis method based on China’s provincial multi-regional input-output model to explore the driving forces for the increase in China’s CO2 emissions during the important development period of 2002-2012. Results show that during the period 2007-2012, changes in the structure of inter-provincial trade showed a carbon-intensive trend. The upward emission effects from the growth in the scale of final demand were mainly driven by exports as well as investment in the eastern provinces during the period 2002-2007, but driven mainly by increases in provincial investment in the following period. At the sectoral level, the CO2 intensity of electricity production had been continuously improved during the study period, and that of the production of non-metallic mineral products, metal rolled and processed products had also been improved to a certain extent. However, electricity consumption in the construction and service industries had increased. In the future, measurements for improving CO2 intensity and production technology on the production side could be combined with guidance of consumption preference on the demand side. Meanwhile, low-carbon development cooperation based on the inter-regional industrial chain could also play a role in reducing China’s CO2 emissions.

Key words: CO2 emissions, driving forces, inter-provincial trade structure, structural decomposition analysis, multi-regional inputoutput model