产业支持政策对中国新能源汽车推广的影响研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 量化评估新能源汽车产业政策的效果有利于为中国后续政策的制定和调整提供依据。本文基于消费者车辆需求的行为效用函数，以2012—2018年间中国新能源乘用车市场份额的月度数据为因变量，以财政补贴、购置税减免、不限行不限购以及政府和公共机构采购四个政策工具为自变量，加入新能源汽车售价、电池价格、油电价格之差、新能源汽车电池专利申请量以及充电桩数量作为控制变量，采用时间序列协整模型和误差修正模型对四类政策的效果进行了量化评估，结果显示：首先，在2012—2018年间，财政补贴、购置税减免、不限行不限购、政府和公共机构采购四类政策都对我国新能源汽车的推广产生了正向的促进作用，其中，财政补贴的效果最大。其次，财政补贴的效果在2012—2016年间逐渐增强，而在2017—2018年间开始递减。此外，政府和公共机构对新能源汽车公共采购规模每增加1％，就会导致新能源汽车市场份额上升0?? 331％；因限购政策而被抑制的购车需求每增加1％，就会导致新能源汽车市场份额上升0?? 312％。控制变量中，新能源汽车售价和电池价格的提高不利于新能源汽车的推广；油电价格之差、电池专利申请数量以及充电桩数量的增加在长期对新能源汽车推广均存在正向的积极影响。

关键词: 产业支持政策, 新能源汽车, 不限行不限购, 政府和公共机构采购

Abstract: Quantitative evaluation of the effects of the new energy vehicle industry policy is conducive to providing a basis for the formu- lation and adjustment of China's follow-up policies. Based on the behavioral utility function of consumer vehicle demand and by choosing the monthly data of China's new energy passenger car market share in 2012-2018 as dependent variable, four government policies (re- garding financial subsidies, purchase tax exemption, no restrictions on the use and purchase of new energy vehicles and government/pub- lic procurement respectively) as independent variables and the selling price of new energy vehicles, battery prices, the difference be- tween oil and electricity prices, the number of new energy vehicle battery patent applications and the number of charging piles as control variables, this paper uses the time series cointegration model and error correction model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the four policies. The findings are as follows. Firstly, in 2012-2018, the four policies all have a positive effect on the promotion of China's new energy vehicles and among them, the financial subsidy policy has the largest effect. Secondly, the effect of financial subsidies gradually increased from 2012 to 2016, but began to decrease from 2017 to 2018. In addition, each 1% increase in the new energy vehicle pro- curement by government and public institutions will lead to an increase of 0.331% in the market share of new energy vehicles; each 1% increase in car purchase demand suppressed by the purchase restriction policy will lead to a 0.312% increase in the new energy vehicles market share. So far as the controll variables are concerned, an increase in the price of new energy vehicles and battery is not conducive to the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the difference in the prices of petrol and electricity, the number of battery technology patent applications, and an increase in the number of charging piles has a positive effect on the promotion of new energy vehicles in the long term.

Key words: industrial support policy, new energy vehicles, no restrictions on the use and purchase, government and public purchases

李晓敏, 刘毅然, 靖博伦. 产业支持政策对中国新能源汽车推广的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(3): 55-65.

Li Xiaomin, Liu Yiran, Jing Bolun. Research on the Impact of Support Policies on the Promotion of New Energy Vehicles in China[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(3): 55-65.

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