城市群经济高质量发展空间收敛、动态演进以及创新影响研究——“珠三角”和“长三角”的对比分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了研究城市群经济高质量发展过程中的空间收敛、状态转移规律以及创新对其影响,基于熵值法测算了城市群经济高质量发展水平,采用空间滞后模型分析了空间σ收敛性和β收敛性,基于空间Markov链建立了状态转移概率矩阵,最后基于空间面板模型测算了创新对城市群经济高质量发展的影响。研究发现:(1)城市群经济高质量发展水平逐步提升,“珠三角”城市群高于“长三角”城市群;(2)“珠三角”城市群经济高质量发展呈现负相关关系,存在σ收敛性和β收敛性;(3)“长三角”城市群经济高质量发展呈现正相关关系,不存在σ收敛性,存在β收敛性;(4)城市群经济高质量发展状态演变具有较强的路径依赖性,邻接区域类型对状态转移具有多种类型的影响;(5)空间滞后量对“珠三角”城市群经济高质量发展具有负向影响,对“长三角”城市群则具有正向影响;(6)城市群创新投入有待进一步优化,金融发展水平具有正向影响。主要建议:(1)应该从城市群视角制定相关发展政策、制度和策略,提升城市群协同发展水平;(2)针对不同地区状态转移特点,制定对应发展策略,增强经济高质量发展水平状态向上转移概率;(3)优化城市群创新投入,增强金融发展水平的支撑作用。

关键词: 高质量发展, 空间收敛性, 动态演进, 创新, 空间经济计量

Abstract: In order to investigate the spatial convergence, state transition rule and innovation in the process of high-quality economic development of urban agglomeration, this paper estimates the high-quality economic development level of urban agglomeration based on entropy method, analyses the spatial σ&β convergence by using spatial lag model, establishes state transition probability matrix based on spatial Markov chain, and finally measures impact of innovation on high-quality development of urban economy based on the spatial panel model. The results show that: (1) The high-quality development level of urban economy is gradually improving, and the development level of “Pearl River Delta” urban agglomeration is higher than that of “Yangtze River Delta” urban agglomeration; (2) The high-quality economic development of the “Pearl River Delta” urban agglomeration presents a negative correlation, and there is σ&β convergence; (3) The high-quality economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents a positive correlation, and there is not σ&β convergence; ( 4) The evolution of high-quality economic development state of urban agglomeration has a strong path dependence, and the types of adjacent regions have influence of multiple types; (5) The spatial lag has a negative impact on the high-quality economic development of the “Pearl River Delta” urban agglomeration, and has a positive impact on the “ Yangtze River Delta” urban agglomeration; (6) Innovation investment in urban agglomeration needs to be further optimized, while the level of financial development has a positive impact on it. Main suggestions are as follows: (1) Relevant development policies, systems and strategies should be made from the perspective of urban agglomeration to improve the level of coordinated development of urban agglomeration; (2) According to the features of state transition in different regions, corresponding development strategies should be developed to enhance upward transition probability of high-quality economic development level; (3) The adverse impact of innovation on the high-quality development of urban economy should be reversed, and the supporting role of financial development level on it should be enhanced.

Key words: high-quality development, spatial convergence, dynamic evolution, innovation, spatial Econometrics

薛永刚. 城市群经济高质量发展空间收敛、动态演进以及创新影响研究——“珠三角”和“长三角”的对比分析[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(12): 131-145.

Xue Yonggang. Research on Spatial Convergence, Dynamic Evolution and Innovation Impact of High Quality Economic Development in Urban Agglomeration——A Comparative Analysis of Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(12): 131-145.

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