经营期望差距影响公司股价崩盘风险吗？

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文以中国沪、深上市公司为对象,研究了经营期望差距如何影响股价崩盘风险,以及上述影响在不同情境(市场化程度和政治关联)下的差异。结果表明,经营期望落差会促使管理层采取冒险活动与信息操控行为,增大了股价崩盘风险,且在两类冒险活动中,经营期望落差通过违规性冒险投机活动对股价崩盘风险的影响相对更大。经营期望落差作用的发挥会受市场化程度与政治关联的制约,市场化程度与政治关联负向调节经营期望落差对股价崩盘风险的影响。企业管理层在面临经营期望顺差时并没有明显的采纳或回避冒险决策的动机,经营期望顺差对股价崩盘风险没有显著的影响。

关键词: 股价崩盘风险, 经营期望, 政治关联, 市场化程度

Abstract: Using a corporate-level dataset of Chinese listed companies over the period of 2005-2016, this paper studies the effect of performance aspiration gap on stock price crash risk and the moderate effect of marketization and political connection. The results show that: when the actual performance is below aspiration level, the aspiration gap will prompt managers to take risky behaviors and information manipulation behaviors, which will increase the stock price crash risk. In the two types of risky behaviors, the effect of aspiration gap on stock price crash through illegal risky behaviors is greater. The impact of aspiration loss on stock price crash risk is affected by the degree of marketization and political connection. Marketization and political connection negatively moderate the association between aspiration loss and stock price crash risk. When the actual performance is above aspiration level, managers are not motivated to adopt or evade the risk-taking behaviors. The aspiration surplus has no significant impact on stock price crash risk.

Key words: stock price crash risk, performance aspiration, political connection, marketization

苏坤. 经营期望差距影响公司股价崩盘风险吗？[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(10): 37-51.

Su Kun. Does Performance Aspiration Gap Affect Stock Price Crash Risk?[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(10): 37-51.

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