关键词: 中心城市, 房地产政策, 城市群, 溢出效应, 时空模型

Abstract: The spatio-temporal analysis model and event analysis model are integrated and used to simulate the local spatio-temporal spillover effect of important real estate policies proposed by the core cities in each urban agglomeration. A sample of 156 Chinese cities in 11 major urban agglomerations is selected in this study, and 10 core cities are selected as the regional diffusion experiments for urban real estate policy impact. The results indicate that:The core cities of 11 agglomerations all have different degrees of real estate policy spillover effects. The urban agglomerations of Harbin-Changchun-Central & Southern Liaoning, the West Coast, the Pearl River Delta, the Middle Reach of Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta have obvious regional diffusion effects from the core city's real estate policies, of which purchase quota and loan quota policies have the widest influence. However, the urban agglomerations of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Shandong Peninsula, the Guanzhong Plain, the Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations show a relatively weak spillover effect from the policies, of which the market regulation and tax policies a relatively strong spillover effect, meanwhile they are strongly affected by the administrative regulation policies released by Beijing city.

Key words: core city, real estate policy, urban agglomeration, spillover effect, spatio-temporal model