管理评论 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 274-283.

• 运作管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于活动时间特性的项目缓冲确定方法研究

张俊光, 李婧   

  1. 北京科技大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-18 出版日期:2021-09-28 发布日期:2021-10-09
  • 作者简介:张俊光,北京科技大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;李婧,北京科技大学经济管理学院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71572010)。

Project Buffer Sizing Method Based on Activity Time Characteristics

Zhang Junguang, Li Jing   

  1. School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083
  • Received:2019-01-18 Online:2021-09-28 Published:2021-10-09

摘要: 经典缓冲确定方法在提取安全时间并确定缓冲时,未考虑到活动时间特性的影响,导致抽取的安全时间过多,缓冲过大。基于此,为使缓冲区设置更加合理,本文考虑活动工期弹性和开工柔韧性两种时间特性的影响,分别进行项目的缓冲尺寸确定和缓冲位置确定。首先,通过定义工期弹性程度因子来量化活动工期弹性,从而确定缓冲尺寸;然后,根据工期服从对数正态分布的特征量化活动开工柔韧性,从而确定缓冲位置。仿真结果表明,考虑活动时间特性的缓冲设置,能够有效缩短工期,减少缓冲消耗,并提高了项目的按时完工率。

关键词: 关键链项目管理, 工期弹性, 开工柔韧性, 安全时间, 缓冲

Abstract: Classical buffer sizing methods do not take into account the impact of the activity time characteristics when extracting the security time and determining the buffer, thus making the extracted safety time and the determined buffer too large. In order to reflect the time constraints of the activities, a buffer sizing method based on activity time characteristics is proposed. The buffer determination is divided into two aspects:buffer size determination and buffer position determination. Firstly, the safety time extraction ratio is determined by defining the duration elasticity factor to quantify the activity time extraction ratio and the amount of project buffer; then, the centralized and decentralized management of buffer is determined according to the characteristic of period of activities obeying lognormal distribution. The simulation results show that considering the activity time characteristic, the project duration can be shortened effectively, the buffer consumption is reduced, and the project's on-time completion rate is improved.

Key words: critical chain project management, flexible time limit, flexible start time, safety time, Buffer