政治关联对公司股价崩盘风险的影响

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以我国沪、深上市公司为研究对象，研究了政治关联如何影响公司股价崩盘风险，以及上述影响在不同公司盈利状况、不同外部金融发展水平下的差异。研究表明，民营企业政治关联更符合资源依赖理论的观点，政治关联降低了民营企业股价崩盘风险；政治关联强度越强，对股价崩盘风险的抑制效应就越明显。政治关联作用的发挥受公司自身状况和外部制度环境的约束，政治关联对股价崩盘风险的降低效应在盈利状况较差的公司和金融发展水平较低的区域相对更为明显。而国有企业政治关联对公司股价崩盘风险的影响并不显著。

关键词: 股价崩盘风险, 政治关联, 金融发展水平, 盈利状况

Abstract: The 2008 global financial crisis stimulated the research interest in stock price crash risk. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the determinants of stock price crash risk. However, the determinants of stock price crash risk are still unclear, especially in transition economies. Much less explored are from the perspective of informal institutions, such as political connection, which is very common around the world and has important effect on firm decision making. Using a firm-level dataset of Chinese listed companies over the period of 2007-2015, this paper studies the influence of political connection on stock price crash risk and the difference of above effect under different profitability and financial development level. The results show:The private company's political connection is more in line with the resource dependent theory. Political connection alleviates firm manager's incentive to hide bad news, and thereby potentially reduces stock price crash risk of private companies. The stronger the political connection degree, the more obvious of the inhibitory effect on stock price crash risk. The influence of political connection is restrained by company characteristics and external institutional environments. The influence of political connection on stock price crash risk is relatively more obvious in companies with poorer profitability and regions with lower financial development. The influence of the political connection on stock price crash risk in state-owned enterprises is not significant. It has important implications for us to recognize the value of political connection and reduce the stock price crash risk.

Key words: stock price crash risk, political connection, financial development, profitability

苏坤. 政治关联对公司股价崩盘风险的影响[J]. 管理评论, 2021, 33(7): 54-67.

Su Kun. The Effect of Political Connection on Stock Price Crash Risk[J]. Management Review, 2021, 33(7): 54-67.

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