“距离”与“速度”视角下的新兴产业风险评估及其预警——以航天器制造产业为例

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 新兴产业的发展伴随着不确定性和复杂性，风险贯穿于新兴产业的成长史。针对新兴产业发展过程中无标准参照的风险特性，构建了一个基于逼近理想标准参照值的"垂面"距离风险评估模型；考虑新兴产业成长及风险变化的速度"惯性"，提出了一种基于变化速度特征的风险预警模型。以我国航天器制造业2006-2014年期间的数据为样本，对新兴产业的风险评估与预警进行了实证分析，结果表明：此期间，我国航天器制造业的四类风险演变状态呈现多阶段的具有差异性的特点，综合风险演化展现出无序混乱态势。此外，在航天器制造产业的未来发展进程中，其面临的四类风险中成长性风险最为突出，是预警的重点；技术风险和环境风险较为弱化，但仍需要适当监控；市场风险呈现无警信号，表明其市场前景依然乐观。

关键词: 新兴产业, "垂面"距离, 变化速度特征, 风险评估与预警

Abstract: Emerging industries develop with uncertainty and complexity. Risks exist throughout their growth history. Given the risk of no standard reference throughout the developmet of emerging industries, a novel risk assessment model based on vertical projection distance with nearly ideal standard reference value is established; Considering the velocity inertial of emerging industry growing and its exposures change, a new risk early-warning model in line with speed variation characteristic is proposed. Empirical study on risk assessment and early-warning of Chinese spacecraft manufacturing industry in 2006-2014 show that four types of risk in spacecraft manufacturing industry display a multi-stage and variant evolution state, and comprehensive risks evolution is in disorder. Besides, in the future development of spacecraft manufacturing industry, the growth risk is the most serious of the four risks, and is the emphasis of risk early-warning; technical risk and environmental risk are weaker, but still need to be monitored; and market risk has no warning signals, meaning that the market outlook remains bright.

Key words: emerging industries, vertical projection distance, speed variation characteristic, risk assessment and early warning

杨早立, 綦萌, 黄鲁成, 唐中君. “距离”与“速度”视角下的新兴产业风险评估及其预警——以航天器制造产业为例[J]. 管理评论, 2021, 33(7): 43-53.

Yang Zaoli, Qi Meng, Huang Lucheng, Tang Zhongjun. A Risk Assessment and Early Warning Method for Emerging Industries from the Perspective of “Distance” and “peed”——-A Case Study in Spacecraft Manufacturing Industry[J]. Management Review, 2021, 33(7): 43-53.

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