管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 45-55.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑风险关联性和随机性的交通基础设施建设风险评估方法研究

张劲1, 索玮岚2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-18 发布日期:2020-07-10
  • 通讯作者: 索玮岚(通讯作者),中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副研究员,博士
  • 作者简介:张劲,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目（71673267）；中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长青年基金项目（Y8X1081Q01）；新疆生产建设兵团公路科学技术研究所委托课题（Y9039013）。

Research on Risk Assessment Method for Transport Infrastructure Construction Considering the Interdependency and Stochasticity of Risks

Zhang Jin1, Suo Weilan2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2019-09-18 Published:2020-07-10

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摘要： 交通基础设施建设过程往往面临着多重风险因素的严峻挑战，尤其是多重风险因素的复杂关联性与高度随机性以及国别差异的显著性增加了风险评估的难度。为此，本文提出一种基于随机DEMATEL-VIKOR的交通基础设施建设风险评估方法。首先，根据专家判断生成多重风险因素的随机关联信息，进而通过关联分析确定各风险因素的排序和归类；然后，将关联分析确定的风险因素中心度与多重风险因素的随机评估信息有效集成，进而构造交通基础设施建设风险指数，并根据决策机制系数确定各国别风险指数的折衷排序；最后，以30个“一带一路”沿线国家的相关数据为基础开展实证研究，验证所提方法的有效性和先进性，并根据评估结果给出针对性的启示与建议。研究成果有助于保障国别视角下交通基础设施建设风险评估的准确性，能够为相关基建企业明晰“走出去”风险态势、有效应对风险提供有价值的决策参考。

关键词: 风险评估, 交通基础设施建设, 风险关联性, 风险随机性, 随机DEMATEL-VIKOR

Abstract: The construction process of transport infrastructures is always accompanied with tough challenges from multiple risk factors. Especially, the complex interdependency and high stochasticity of risks as well as the differences of countries make risk assessment more difficult. Therefore, a risk assessment method based on stochastic DEMATEL-VIKOR is proposed for transport infrastructure construction. Firstly, stochastic interdependency information on risk factors is generated from experts' judgments. The rankings and classifications of risk factors are further determined by an interdependency analysis. Subsequently, the prominence of risk factors determined by the interdependency analysis and the stochastic assessment information of multiple risk factors are integrated effectively to construct the risk index of transport infrastructure construction. Furthermore, the compromise rankings of risk indices of each country are determined according to the coefficients of decision mechanisms. Finally, an empirical study based on related data from 30 countries along the Belt and Road is conducted to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method and provide targeted implications and suggestions for risk response according to the risk assessment results. This study is helpful to ensure the accuracy of risk assessment for transport infrastructure construction from the perspectives of countries. The valuable decision references are also provided for related infrastructure enterprises to clarify the risk profile of "reaching out overseas" and response risks effectively.

Key words: risk assessment, transport infrastructure construction, risk interdependency, risk stochasticity, stochastic DEMATEL-VIKOR