公众房价预期形成机理分析与实证研究——基于社会学习视角

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 公众预期是影响房地产市场波动和房地产调控政策效果的关键因素，研究公众预期形成及影响因素，有助于政府有效管理房地产公众预期，实现“稳预期”的目标。本文以社会学习理论为基础，引入心理学与行为学中的“认知”和“情感”两个要素，厘清了客观信息感知、观察学习及先验信念对公众房价预期的作用机制，探析了主体认知与主体情感的中介传导路径，从理论与实证两个层面剖析了公众房价预期的形成机理。研究表明，客观信息感知、观察学习和先验信念均与主体认知存在正相关关系；先验信念与主体情感存在负相关关系；主体认知与房价上涨预期存在正相关关系，而主体情感与房价上涨预期存在负相关关系。政府应保持政策的透明度与连贯性，科学发布市场真实信息，以合理引导公众理性预期的形成。

关键词: 房价, 公众预期, 社会学习

Abstract: Public expectations are a key factor affecting the volatility of housing market as well as the effectiveness of regulatory policies. Studying the formation and influencing factors of public expectations is significant for government to effectively manage public expectations and achieve the goal of "stabilizing expectations". Based on the theory of social learning, we introduce the concept of "cognition" and "emotion" in psychology and behavioral science to clarify the mechanism of perceived objective information, observing learning and prior beliefs on public housing price expectations. Moreover, we explore the intermediate conduction path of agents' cognition and subject emotion, and analyzes the formation mechanism of public housing price expectations from both theoretical and empirical perspective. The empirical results show that perceived objective information, observing learning and prior beliefs are positively related to agent's cognition. There is a negative correlation between prior belief and agent's emotion. The agent's cognition is positively associated with housing price appreciation expectation, while their emotion is negatively correlated with housing price appreciation expectation. The government should maintain the transparency and coherence of policies and scientifically release the real information of housing market to reasonably guide the formation of public rational expectations.

Key words: housing price, public expectations, social learning

董纪昌, 何静, 李秀婷, 董志. 公众房价预期形成机理分析与实证研究——基于社会学习视角[J]. 管理评论, 2020, 32(10): 34-46.

Dong Jichang, He Jing, Li Xiuting, Dong Zhi. Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Research on the Formation of Public Housing Price Expectations ——Based on Social Learning Perspective[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(10): 34-46.

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