管理评论

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 105-115.

• 技术与创新管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市高技术产业与区域经济发展的关系研究

邵长安1,2, 关欣1, 叶中华1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院, 北京 100049;
    2. 防灾科技学院经济管理学院, 三河 065201
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-09 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2019-09-29
  • 通讯作者: 关欣(通讯作者),中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士
  • 作者简介:邵长安,中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院博士研究生,防灾科技学院经济管理学院讲师;叶中华,中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    中央高校基本科研业务资助项目（12090602）。

Research on the Relationship between High-tech Industry and Regional Economic Development in Beijing

Shao Chang'an1,2, Guan Xin1, Ye Zhonghua1   

  1. 1. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201
  • Received:2018-04-09 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2019-09-29

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摘要：

本文分析北京市高技术产业在区域经济发展中的引领作用，实证探究高技术产业发展与区域经济主导的第三产业发展之间的关系。选取北京市2003—2016年高技术产业和第三产业的相关数据，建构向量自回归模型以及误差修正模型，采用脉冲响应、方差分析方法，探究高技术产业和第三产业之间长期以及短期的影响关系。研究得出：北京市高技术产业和区域经济主导的第三产业之间存在长期均衡关系。高技术产业总产值是影响第三产业贡献率变动的原因。两个变量虽然存在单向的因果关系，但是变量之间会正向影响对方，且影响效应长期存在。高技术产业总产值对于第三产业贡献率的正向影响大于第三产业贡献率对于高技术产业总产值的正向影响。在此基础上，提出开展服务外包、促进产业融合与集群发展、推动先进生产性服务业发展、技术渗透增强第三产业竞争力的对策建议。

关键词: 高技术产业, 经济发展, VAR模型, 脉冲响应, 方差分析

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the leading role of high-tech industry of Beijing in the development of regional economy, and explores the relationship between development of high-tech industry and development of tertiary industry. Based on the empirical data of high-tech industry and tertiary industry of Beijing from 2003 to 2016, the paper establishes vector auto-regression (VAR) model and vector error correction (VEC) model, and uses impulse response and variance decomposition to research the long-term and short-term dynamic effect relationship between high-tech industry and tertiary industry. The results indicate that a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between high-tech industry and tertiary industry in Beijing. The total output value of high-tech industry is the reason that affects the contribution rate of tertiary industry in Beijing. There exists one-way causal relationship between two variables, but the variables will affect each other positively and have a long-term effects. The positive impact of the total output value of high-tech industry on the contribution rate of tertiary industry is greater. On this basis, it is advised to develop the service outsourcing, accelerate the industrial integration and cluster development, promote the development of advanced producer services, and improve the competitiveness of tertiary industry through technology penetration.

Key words: high-tech industry, economic development, VAR model, impulse response, variance decomposition