技术体制视角的中国技术领域比较优势演变特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文利用1987-2015年国内和国外在国际专利分类（IPC）大类层面的发明专利申请数据，基于马尔可夫链方法实证分析了不同技术体制下我国技术领域比较优势的动态演变特征。结果表明：总体上，我国技术领域比较优势在连续两年为同一状态的"固化性"概率较高，呈现一定的"马太效应"，而技术领域比较优势的"流动性"主要体现为相邻的两种状态之间。从技术体制视角看，在外国创新的独占性较低、国内外初始知识存量差距较小的技术领域，我国更可能由比较劣势转移到比较优势状态，且维持住已有的比较优势地位；在技术创新累积性较低、技术机会和技术轨道不确定性较高的技术领域，我国更可能突破已有比较优势被固化的陷阱，通过把握机会窗口实现技术比较优势的变迁。

关键词: 技术体制, 技术领域, 比较优势, 演变特征, 马尔可夫链

Abstract:

Based on the IPC class level data of domestic and foreign invention patent application in 1987-2015, this paper uses Markov chains to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of Chinese technological comparative advantage from the perspective of technological regime. The results show that, on the whole, the persistence probability of Chinese technological comparative advantage in two consecutive years is much higher, showing a certain "Matthew effect", while the mobility of Chinese technological comparative advantage occurs mainly in the adjacent two states. From the perspective of technological regime, we find that in technology fields with lower appropriability of foreign innovation and smaller gap between initial foreign and domestic knowledge stock, China is more likely to move from comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage states, and maintain the existing comparative advantage at the same time. And in technology fields with lower cumulativeness of technological innovation, and higher technological opportunities and uncertainty of technological trajectory, China is more likely to avoid being locked in the comparative advantage trap, and seize the window of opportunity to change the states of technological comparative advantage.

Key words: technological regime, technology field, comparative advantage, evolutionary characteristics, Markov chains

马荣康, 刘凤朝. 技术体制视角的中国技术领域比较优势演变特征分析[J]. , 2019, 31(5): 118-127.

Ma Rongkang, Liu Fengchao. Evolutionary Characteristics of Domestic Technological Comparative Advantage in China: Evidence from the Perspective of Technological Regime[J]. , 2019, 31(5): 118-127.

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