户籍制度对中国城乡居民养老方式选择影响——基于Mixed-Logit模型

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 3-14.

• 经济与金融管理 • 下一篇

户籍制度对中国城乡居民养老方式选择影响——基于Mixed-Logit模型

王吉元¹, 汪寿阳^1,2, 胡毅¹

1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190

收稿日期:2016-11-10 出版日期:2019-01-28 发布日期:2019-01-22
通讯作者: 汪寿阳(通讯作者),中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员,博士生导师,博士
作者简介:王吉元,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生;胡毅,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71301160）；北京市共建项目专项资助。

Impact of Registered Household Domicile on Chinese Residents' Choice of Financial Sources for Their Elderly Life——Based on Mixed-Logit Models

Wang Jiyuan¹, Wang Shouyang^1,2, Hu Yi¹

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

Received:2016-11-10 Online:2019-01-28 Published:2019-01-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文研究了户籍制度对我国城乡居民养老方式选择的影响，主要是研究城镇与农村户籍之间差异对选择的影响。一般来说，全球的老年人主要有以下老年经济来源：孩子的支持，养老金收入，商业养老保险以及私人储蓄。本文使用了中国老年健康与养老调查CHARLS 2011年的数据对这个问题进行了研究。通过对比了Multinomial Logit，Multinomial Probit以及Mixed-Logit的模型拟合以及一些重要假设的检验，我们选择了Mixed-Logit的估计结果进行各影响因素边际影响的估计。结果表明，城乡户籍区分造成的养老方式选择差异是非常显著的，无论从统计上还是经济上。其中，农村户口主要偏向于选择孩子作为未来养老基础；而城镇户口则主要偏向于选择养老金；对于私人储蓄和商业养老保险，两种户籍类型居民选择差异并不明显。

关键词: 户籍制度, 养老方式选择, Mixed-Logit模型, 微观计量经济学

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the impact of registered household domicile (mainly from the perspective of urban versus rural domicile) on Chinese residents' choice of financial sources for their elderly life. Generally, financial sources available for the elderly worldwide include children's support, social pension, commercial pension insurance and private savings. This paper draws upon the CHARLS (Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study) 2011data. By comparing the model goodness-of-fits and other tests among Multinomial Logit models, Multinomial Probit models and Mixed-Logit models, we finally choose Mixed-Logit models as our main models and estimate the marginal effects. The results show that the difference in registered household domicile is responsible for Chinese residents' choice of financial sources for their elderly life, both statistically and economically. To be specific, rural-registered residents seem to rely heavily on the children's support while urban-registered residents are more inclined to choose pension. Neither rural-registered residents nor urban-registered residents have a clear preference in choosing private savings and commercial pension insurance as the main financial source of elderly life.

Key words: household registration system, financial sources for elderly life, mixed-Logit models, micro-econometrics

王吉元, 汪寿阳, 胡毅. 户籍制度对中国城乡居民养老方式选择影响——基于Mixed-Logit模型[J]. , 2019, 31(1): 3-14.

Wang Jiyuan, Wang Shouyang, Hu Yi. Impact of Registered Household Domicile on Chinese Residents' Choice of Financial Sources for Their Elderly Life——Based on Mixed-Logit Models[J]. , 2019, 31(1): 3-14.

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户籍制度对中国城乡居民养老方式选择影响——基于Mixed-Logit模型

Impact of Registered Household Domicile on Chinese Residents' Choice of Financial Sources for Their Elderly Life——Based on Mixed-Logit Models

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