自由贸易协定与我国进出口贸易关系研究

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 52-60.

自由贸易协定与我国进出口贸易关系研究

王昌荣¹, 王元月²

1. 青岛大学商学院, 青岛 266071;
2. 中国海洋大学经济学院, 青岛 266100

收稿日期:2015-11-12 出版日期:2018-02-28 发布日期:2018-02-10
作者简介:王昌荣,青岛大学商学院讲师,博士;王元月,中国海洋大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
基金资助:
青岛市科技惠民专项软科学项目（17-1-3-433-ZHC）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目（2016M590625）。

Free Trade Agreement and Chinese International Trade

Wang Changrong¹, Wang Yuanyue²

1. School of Business, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071;
2. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100

Received:2015-11-12 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自由贸易协定对我国所产生的经济效应正逐步深入。本文从理论和实证两方面深入分析FTA的签订对我国所产生的进出口贸易效应。理论分析中，主要研究FTA的外部影响，分为进出口贸易创造效应和进出口贸易转移效应。实证分析中，借鉴已被广泛用于国际贸易实证分析的引力模型，选取我国2003-2012年进出口贸易的相关数据，通过静态面板和动态面板的实证分析，得出结论：一方面自由贸易协定的签订对我国所产生的进出口贸易创造效应小于贸易转移效应；另一方面FTA的签署对我国所产生的进出口贸易效应随时间趋势递减。

关键词: 自由贸易协定, 引力模型, 贸易效应

Abstract:

The effects of FTA on Chinese economy are more and more significant. This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the effects of FTA on Chinese international trade. From the theoretical aspect, this paper focuses on the external influences of FTA, which are divided into trade creation and trade diversion effects. From the empirical aspect, we apply the gravity model used by scholars and se-lect China's trade data from 2003 to 2012 to test the relevant hypotheses. By applying the static panels and dynamic panels, we conclude that trade diversion effects of FTA are greater than trade creation effects. What's more, the effects of FTA on Chinese foreign trade are decreasing as time goes by.

Key words: FTA, gravity model, trade effect

王昌荣, 王元月. 自由贸易协定与我国进出口贸易关系研究[J]. , 2018, 30(2): 52-60.

Wang Changrong, Wang Yuanyue. Free Trade Agreement and Chinese International Trade[J]. , 2018, 30(2): 52-60.

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