丝绸之路经济带背景下上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 3-12.

• 经济与金融管理 • 下一篇

丝绸之路经济带背景下上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析

石敏俊^1,2, 美丽古丽^1,3, 黄文^1,4, 李娜¹

1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
2. 中国人民大学经济学院, 北京 100872;
3. 新疆维吾尔自治区对外开放领导小组办公室, 乌鲁木齐 830001;
4. 四川省广元市发改委, 广元 628000

收稿日期:2015-04-09 出版日期:2018-02-28 发布日期:2018-02-10
作者简介:石敏俊,中国人民大学经济学院教授,博士;美丽古丽,新疆维吾尔自治区对外开放领导小组办公室督查处处长,博士;黄文,四川省广元市发改委副主任,博士;李娜,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院讲师,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71173212）；国家社科基金重点项目（13AZD082）。

The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model

Shi Minjun^1,2, Meili Guli^1,3, Huang Wen^1,4, Li Na¹

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
2. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872;
3. the Leading Group Office for Opening-up Affairs of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830001;
4. Guangyuan Development And Reform Commission, Guangyuan 628000

Received:2015-04-09 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推进上海合作组织相关国家的贸易自由化，是加快丝绸之路经济带沿线国家互联互通建设的战略选择之一。本文基于GTAP模型和情景模拟方法，分析了上海合作组织相关国家贸易自由化的经济效应，以及对中国和"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家各国间贸易关系的影响。模拟结果表明，上海合作组织相关国家贸易自由化，可以有效应对俄-白-哈关税同盟对中国和相关国家经济和贸易带来的冲击，有助于提升中国和"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系，从而推进"一带一路"战略构想的实施。并且，随着自由贸易区范围从上海合作组织成员国扩大到上海合作组织相关的所有国家，中国以及"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系会更为受益。

关键词: 丝绸之路经济带, 上海合作组织, 贸易自由化, GTAP模型

Abstract:

Promoting the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states is one of strategic options to ac-celerate the interconnectivity construction of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the GTAP model and scenario simu-lation, this paper analyzes the economic effects of trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states, as well as the influence of trade relations between China and countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The simulation results show that, the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states can help China and relevant countries effectively deal with the impact from Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, help to improve the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relationship among these countries, so as to promote the implementation of strategic conception of "One Belt and One Road". And as the scope of free trade area from member states expands to all relevant countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organi-zation (SCO), the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relation among these countries would gain more benefits.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, trade liberalization, GTAP model

石敏俊, 美丽古丽, 黄文, 李娜. 丝绸之路经济带背景下上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析[J]. , 2018, 30(2): 3-12.

Shi Minjun, Meili Guli, Huang Wen, Li Na. The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model[J]. , 2018, 30(2): 3-12.

参考文献

[1] Mary B. T. The New Silk Road[J]. Thunderbird International Business Review, 2014,56(5):391-392
[2] Hou R. Silk Road Economic Belt-A Welcome Proposal[J]. China Today, 2014,63(1):30-33
[3] 赵华胜. 对上海合作组织发展前景的几点看法[J]. 国际问题研究, 2006,(3):23-27
[4] 贾俐贞. 构建上海合作组织自由贸易区的战略思考[J]. 俄罗斯中亚东欧研究, 2007,(1):75-80
[5] 张银山,秦放鸣. 丝绸之路经济带背景下加快推进中国-中亚自由贸易区建设的思考[J]. 经济研究参考, 2014,(55):19-26
[6] Kuralay M. Central Asia, Afghanistan and International Order:Challenges and Opportunities of Shanghai Cooperation Organization[J]. Journal of Global Policy and Governance, 2013,1(2):203-215
[7] Yeongmi Y., Kicheol P. An Analysis of the Multilateral Cooperation and Competition between Russia and China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization:Issues and Prospects[J]. Pacific Focus, 2012,27(1):62-85
[8] 周小玲. 俄白哈关税同盟对新疆农产品贸易带来的机遇与挑战[J]. 农垦经济, 2012,(12):67-70
[9] 王海运,张恒龙,李建民,等. "丝绸之路经济带"构想的背景,潜在挑战和未来走势[J]. 欧亚经济, 2014,(4):5-58
[10] Michael F. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasian Geopolitics:New Directions, Perspectives, and Challenges[M]. Copenhagen:Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, 2013
[11] 卢兹亚宁. C. G. 对于莫斯科和北京在上海合作组织的优先地位研究[N]. 俄罗斯独立报, 2014-9-28
[12] 李福川. 俄白哈关税同盟及对上海合作组织的影响[J]. 俄罗斯中亚东欧市场, 2011,(7):1-9
[13] 杨恕,王术森. 俄白哈关税同盟的发展及其影响[J]. 国际问题研究, 2014,(4):94-112
[14] 程云洁. 俄白哈关税同盟对新疆外贸的影响分析[J]. 俄罗斯东亚欧亚市场, 2012,(1):40-43
[15] 赵青松. 吉尔吉斯斯坦加入俄白哈关税同盟的利弊及其影响[J]. 国际经济合作, 2014,(10):63-67
[16] 何伦志,王德全. 西部大开发与建立中亚自由贸易区的构想[J]. 新疆大学学报(社会科学版), 2000,28(4):1-5
[17] 张旭华. 跨境经济合作区的构建与中国的跨边境合作策略探析[J]. 亚太经济, 2011,(4):108-113
[18] 杨小娟. 我国边境贸易的影响因素和区域格局[J]. 改革, 2013,(6):110-117
[19] 竹效民. 建立中亚自由贸易区的构想[J]. 伊犁师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2014,(9):70-74
[20] Liu Z., Mao X., Tang W., et al. An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement's Economic and Environmental Im-pacts on China[J]. Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering, 2012,6(6):849-859
[21] Yu W., Cheng G., Yang J. Impact of Sino-Australia Free Trade Agreement's Talks on China's Dairy Industry[J]. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 2010,(1):469-476
[22] Kakali M., Paul J. T., Debesh C. Economic Impact of Freer Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean:A GTAP Analysis[J]. Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economia, 2012,49(2):147-183
[23] Engelbert T. Beyhan B. Martina B. Moving toward the EU or the Middle East? An Assessment of Alternative Turkish Foreign Poli-cies Utilizing the GTAP Framework[J]. Food Policy, 2014,(47):46-61
[24] 黄凌云,刘清华. 建立东亚自由贸易区的中国经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2008, (12):60-68
[25] Hertel T. W. Global Trade Analysis:Modeling and Application[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press, 2007

丝绸之路经济带背景下上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析

The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价