管理评论

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 222-230.

• 应急管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的台风灾害应急策略研究

于小兵1,2, 曹杰1,2, 王旭明3, 蔡玫2   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;
    2. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院, 南京 210044;
    3. 南京信息工程大学电信学院, 南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-23 出版日期:2018-02-28 发布日期:2018-02-10
  • 作者简介:于小兵,南京信息工程大学经济管理学院副教授,博士;曹杰,南京信息工程大学社科处处长,博士生导师;王旭明,南京信息工程大学电信学院讲师,硕士;蔡玫,南京信息工程大学经济管理学院副教授,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金重大项目（16ZDA054）；国家自然科学基金项目（71503134；91546117；71401078）；江苏省高校哲社项目（2016SJB630016）。

System-dynamics-based Emergency Strategy Analysis for Typhoon Disaster

Yu Xiaobing1,2, Cao Jie1,2, Wang Xuming3, Cai Mei2   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;
    3. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
  • Received:2015-10-23 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-10

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摘要：

我国是世界上受台风灾害影响最大的国家之一。基于系统动力学，构建了考虑市民恐慌程度和损失率的多目标动力学模型，探索台风灾害应急管理策略。不同于现有台风灾害研究，该模型将台风的自然属性和社会属性引入研究框架。通过多主体建模和仿真理论，梳理政府、防指、市民等多元主体在台风灾害应急管理中的行为机制。以2013年台风"菲特"造成的浙江余姚水灾为例对模型进行了验证。研究表明，政府应急调度水平、防指协同度和市民参与度直接影响到台风灾害带来的经济损失和社会恐慌程度；且以数值仿真分析论证上述三个影响因素的重要程度基本相当。本研究在理论层面上对突发事件应急管理体系特别是台风应对方法有所贡献；对构建包括政府、防指、市民等多元主体积极、主动响应台风灾害提供理论依据。

关键词: 系统动力学, 台风灾害, 应急管理, 应急策略

Abstract:

China is one of the hardest hit regions by typhoon. A typhoon disaster emergency model is established based on system dynam-ics in this paper. A multi-objective dynamics model is proposed to consider the degree of public panic and loss rate and to discover effec-tive management policies. Different from other existing studies, both natural and social factors are introduced. The management mecha-nisms including government, flood control and drought relief headquarters and public are considered by multi-Agent model and simulation theory. Water disaster caused by typhoon Fitow is taken as instance in Yuyao City, Zhejiang Province. The empirical study demonstrates that government emergency scheduling, cooperation of flood control and drought relief headquarters and participation of citizens directly influence loss and public panic. Numerical simulation indicates that three factors are of roughly equal importance. It is useful to improve theoretical level of emergency management system, especially to deal with the typhoon. The results also prove that multiple subjects in-cluding government, flood control and drought relief headquarters, citizens should respond to typhoon disaster positively and actively.

Key words: system dynamics, typhoon disaster, emergency management, emergency strategy