基于相似案例分析的风险投资项目选择方法研究

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 65-76.

基于相似案例分析的风险投资项目选择方法研究

李永海

河南工业大学管理学院, 郑州 450001

收稿日期:2015-06-08 出版日期:2017-08-28 发布日期:2017-09-26
作者简介:李永海,河南工业大学管理学院讲师,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71501063；71603073；71602051）；河南省软科学研究计划项目（172400410388）；河南省省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2014SBS003）；河南省高校人文社科重点研究基地物流研究中心项目（2015-JD-04）。

Method for Selecting Venture Capital Project Based on Similar Cases Analysis

Li Yonghai

School of Management, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001

Received:2015-06-08 Online:2017-08-28 Published:2017-09-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风险投资前的项目选择对于风险投资成败有着重要影响，如何进行风险投资项目的选择，是近年来一直备受关注的重要研究课题。本文针对风险投资项目选择问题，提出了一种基于相似案例分析的决策分析方法。在该方法中，首先，计算历史案例与目标案例间的相似度；然后，依据事先设定的相似度阈值来提取相似历史案例，并构建对应于各目标案例的相似历史案例集；进一步地，依据相似历史案例并结合当前实际情况来进行目标案例涉及的风险因素值和收益指标值的计算；在此基础上，通过综合考察目标案例的风险投资项目关于项目风险和项目收益两方面的综合评价值来进行风险投资项目的优选。最后，通过一个实例分析来说明了本文提出方法的可行性与有效性。

关键词: 风险投资项目选择, 项目风险, 项目收益, 相似案例分析, Choquet积分

Abstract:

Selection of the venture capital project bears heavily on the success or failure of a venture capital investment. In recent years, how to select the venture capital project has become an important research topic. The objective of this paper is to propose a method for selecting venture capital project based on similar cases analysis. First, the similarity between each historical case and each target case is calculated. Then, the similar historical cases are retrieved based on the similarity threshold set beforehand, and the similar historical case set concerning each target case is constructed. Further, the risk values and benefit values with regard to each target case are calculated based on the similar historical cases and the current actual situation. On the basis of the above, the desirable venture capital project are selected through the investigation of comprehensive evaluation values of venture capital project involved in each target case with respect to the project risk and the project benefit. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the method proposed in this paper.

Key words: venture capital project selection, project risk, project benefit, similar cases analysis, choquet integral

李永海. 基于相似案例分析的风险投资项目选择方法研究[J]. , 2017, 29(8): 65-76.

Li Yonghai. Method for Selecting Venture Capital Project Based on Similar Cases Analysis[J]. , 2017, 29(8): 65-76.

参考文献

[1] Sahlman W. A. The Structure and Governance of Venture-Capital Organizations[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1990,27(2):473-521
[2] 周伶,山峻,张津. 联合投资网络位置对投资绩效的影响——来自风险投资的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2014,26(12):160-169
[3] 资本实验室. 2014年度全球风险投资与趋势报告[R]. 北京猎豹投资管理有限公司, 2015
[4] Castilla E. J. Networks of Venture Capital Firms in Silicon Valley[J]. International Journal of Technology Management, 2003,25(1-2):113-135
[5] Gregoriou G. N., Kooli M., Kraeussl R. Venture Capital in Europe[M]. London:Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann, 2007
[6] 于超,樊治平. 考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016,24(6):29-37
[7] Tyebjee T. T., Bruno A. V. A Model of Venture Capitalist Investment Activity[J]. Management Science, 1984,30(9):1051-1066
[8] 樊治平,尤天慧. 高新技术企业风险投资的一种决策方法[J]. 东北大学学报(自然科学版), 1999,20(1):98-100
[9] Gustafsson J., Salo A. Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects[J]. Operations Research, 2005,53(6):946-956
[10] Liu P. D., Zhang X., Liu W. L. A Risk Evaluation Method for the High-Tech Project Investment Based on Uncertain Linguistic Variables[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011,78(1):40-50
[11] 庞蜜. 基于二元语义的高新技术企业风险投资项目评价与决策研究[D]. 华南理工大学硕士学位论文, 2013
[12] Aouni B., Colapinto C., Torre D. La. A Cardinality Constrained Stochastic Goal Programming Model with Satisfaction Functions for Venture Capital Investment Decision Making[J]. Annals of Operations Research, 2013,205(1):77-88
[13] 冯克宇. 基于Fuzzy AHP的区域型商业地产业态选择决策[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(1):57-65
[14] 刘卫柏,李中. 企业突破性技术创新投资决策的期权博弈模型[J]. 管理评论, 2016,28(4):89-97
[15] 罗吉,党兴华,王育晓. 网络位置、网络能力与风险投资机构投资绩效:一个交互效应模型[J]. 管理评论, 2016,28(9):83-97
[16] Zhang X. B. Venture Capital Investment Selection Decision-Making Base on Fuzzy Theory[J]. Physics Procedia, 2012,25:1369-1375
[17] De Treville. S., Petty J. S., Wager S. Economies of Extremes:Lessons from Venture-Capital Decision Making[J]. Journal of Operations Management, 2014,32(6):387-398
[18] Motta G. S., Garcia P. A. A., Quintella R. H. A Patento-Scientometric Approach to Venture Capital Investment Prioritization[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2015,66(4):765-777
[19] Modigliani F., Miller M. H. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment[J]. The American Economic Review, 1958,48(3):261-297
[20] Dixit A. K., Pindyck R. S. Investment under Uncertainty[M]. New Jersey:Princeton University Press, 1994
[21] Büyüközkan G., Ruan D. Choquet Integral Based Aggregation Approach to Software Development Risk Assessment[J]. Information Sciences, 2010,180(3):441-451
[22] Schank, Roger C. Dynamic Memory:A Theory of Reminding and Learning in Computers and People[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press, 1982
[23] Gilboa I., Schmeidler D. Case-Based Decision Theory[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995,110(3):605-639
[24] Aamodt A., Plaza E. Case-Based Reasoning:Foundational Issues, Methodological Variations, and System Approaches[J]. AI Communications, 1994,7(1):39-59
[25] Wambeke B. W., Liu M., Hsiang S. M. Using Last Planner and a Risk Assessment Matrix to Reduce Variation in Mechanical Related Construction Tasks[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2012,138(4):491-498
[26] Liu W. M., Hu G. Y., Li J. F. Emergency Resources Demand Prediction Using Case-Based Reasoning[J]. Safety Science, 2012,50(3):530-534
[27] 顾东晓,李兴国,梁昌勇,等. 案例检索及权重优化方法研究及应用[J]. 系统工程学报, 2009,24(6):764-768
[28] 石莉,杨善林,马英,等. 一种新的组合权重集结方法及合理性评价研究[J]. 系统工程学报, 2012,27(4):481-491
[29] 李刚,程砚秋,董霖哲,等. 基尼系数客观赋权方法研究[J]. 管理评论, 2014,26(1):12-22
[30] 任静. 提高多指标决策客观性的赋权方法[J]. 管理评论, 2012,24(5):160-169
[31] Fan Z. P., Li Y. H., Wang X., et al. Hybrid Similarity Measure for Case Retrieval in CBR and Its Application to Emergency Response towards Gas Explosion[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2014,41(5):2526-2534
[32] Jiang Y. P., Fan Z. P., Ma J. A Method for Group Decision Making with Multi-Granularity Linguistic Assessment Information[J]. Information Sciences, 2008,178(4):1098-1109
[33] Feng B., Lai F. J. Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Aspirations:A Case Study[J]. Omega, 2014,44:136-147
[34] 杨纶标,高英仪,凌卫新. 模糊数学原理及应用[M]. 广东:华南理工大学出版社, 2011
[35] Fan Z. P., Zhang X., Chen F. D., et al. Extended TODIM Method for Hybrid Multiple Attribute Decision Making Problems[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2013,42:40-48
[36] He K., Hu M., Chen Z. The Relationship between Risk Measures and Choquet Expectations in the Framework of G-Expectations[J]. Statistics & Probability Letters, 2009,79(4):508-512