中国天然气产业的发展过快了吗?

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 23-32.

中国天然气产业的发展过快了吗?

柴建^1,2, 卢全莹², 邢丽敏², 乔晗³, Kin Keung Lai^2,4, 兰鹏⁵

1. 西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院, 西安 710162;
2. 陕西师范大学国际商学院, 西安 710062;
3. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
4. 香港城市大学商学院, 香港 999097;
5. 机械工业信息中心, 北京 100823

收稿日期:2015-12-14 出版日期:2017-08-28 发布日期:2017-09-26
通讯作者: 卢全莹,陕西师范大学国际商学院硕士研究生
作者简介:柴建,西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院教授,硕士生导师,博士;邢丽敏,陕西师范大学国际商学院硕士研究生;乔晗,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士;Kin Keung Lai,香港城市大学商学院教授,博士生导师,博士;兰鹏,机械工业信息中心工程师。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（71473155）；陕西师范大学中央高校特别资助项目（14SZTZ03）；陕西省青年科技新星计划项目（2016KJXX-14）；西安电子科技大学2015年度丝绸之路经济带研究项目（7215628803）。

Is China's Natural Gas Industry Growing Too Fast?

Chai Jian^1,2, Lu Quanying², Xing Limin², Qiao Han³, Kin Keung Lai^2,4, Lan Peng⁵

1. School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, Xi'an 710126;
2. International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062;
3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
4. Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999097;
5. Machinery Industry Information Center, Beijing 100823

Received:2015-12-14 Online:2017-08-28 Published:2017-09-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，天然气在中国能源结构中所占比重逐年加大，对外依存度增加，但进入"新常态"时期，在国内经济下行压力加大及国际原油价格下跌的影响下，需求放缓，天然气供应出现产能过剩倾向。在此背景下，分析天然气供需现状及未来产能具有重要意义。本文首先使用通径分析模型筛选出天然气供给和需求的核心影响因素；其次，运用ETS模型、RBF神经网络分位数回归（RBF-QRNN）模型和情景分析方法分别对我国天然气生产量、消费量和进口量进行分析和预测。最后，比较分析未来中国天然气市场的供需情况。结果表明，"十二五"末，中国天然气总供给量和总消费量分别将近178532.1百万立方米，152874.7百万立方米；2020年天然气总供给量和消费量分别将近295819.4百万立方米，228691.5百万立方米。总供给量的年均增长率高于总消费量的年均增长率。从2015年开始，中国天然气产业出现产能过剩，供过于求的"荒气"现象。

关键词: 天然气, 供给与需求, RBF神经网络, 分位数回归, 概率密度预测, ETS, 情景分析

Abstract:

Natural gas in China's energy structure has been rising in recent years and its supply is increasingly dependent on import. However, in the "New Normal" period, the slowdown in gas demand caused by domestic economic downturn and falling global oil prices have lead to gas oversupply. Under this background, it is significant to analyze the current situation and future capacity of natural gas supply and demand. At first, this paper uses path analysis to screen the core of factors that influence natural gas consumption and supply, then predicts gas consumption, production and imports in China by the RBF neural network quantile regression (RBF-QRNN) model, ETS model and scenario analysis method separately, and lastly, discusses and compares the results of consumption and supply. The result shows that the natural gas consumption in China will reach around 178649.23 million cubic meters by the end of "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and about 264698.86 million cubic meters by 2020. And the natural gas supply will reach around 228691.5 million cubic meters by the end of "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and about 295819.4 million cubic meters by 2020. Annual supply will grow faster than consumption. Starting from 2015, natural gas supply has tended to be over-supplied.

Key words: natural gas consumption, supply and demand, RBF neural network, quantile regression, probability density forecast, ETS, scenario analysis

柴建, 卢全莹, 邢丽敏, 乔晗, Kin Keung Lai, 兰鹏. 中国天然气产业的发展过快了吗?[J]. , 2017, 29(8): 23-32.

Chai Jian, Lu Quanying, Xing Limin, Qiao Han, Kin Keung Lai, Lan Peng. Is China's Natural Gas Industry Growing Too Fast?[J]. , 2017, 29(8): 23-32.

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