管理评论

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 181-190.

• 物流与供应链管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于引力模型的区域物流需求预测研究

鲁渤1, 汪寿阳2, 匡海波3   

  1. 1. 大连大学国际学院, 大连 116622;
    2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    3. 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院, 大连 116026
  • 收稿日期:2014-07-30 出版日期:2017-02-28 发布日期:2017-03-16
  • 通讯作者: 鲁渤(通讯作者),大连大学国际学院副教授,博士。
  • 作者简介:汪寿阳,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,博士生导师,博士;匡海波,大连海事大学交通运输管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（71573028；7161101158）；辽宁省高校杰出青年学者计划项目（WJQ2015004）；辽宁省自然科学基金项目（201601006）；辽宁省经济社会发展项目（2017lslktqn-014）；辽宁省教育厅智库项目（ZK2015090）；大连市科技之星项目（2016RQ074）；大连市科技重大软科学研究项目（2015D21ZC001）；大连市金普新区科技局软科学研究项目（RXYJ-RXSK-2015-002）。

Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on the Gravity Model

Lu Bo1, Wang Shouyang2, Kuang Haibo3   

  1. 1. International College, Dalian University, Dalian 116622;
    2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    3. Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026
  • Received:2014-07-30 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2017-03-16

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摘要： 预测区域物流需求是对区域物流进行规划和决策的前提，物流需求预测准确性是物流管理研究的核心问题。当研究对象的物流标准不统一，缺乏统计数据时，单个的计量模型和人工智能方法在处理高维度、呈非线性关系的时间序列数据时，预测结果通常达不到所需的准确度，同时也无法保障模型的学习精度和泛化能力；这些研究同时也忽视了"区位"这一影响物流辐射的重要要素对区域物流的影响。因此，本文借鉴引力模型思想，结合空间经济学、产业经济学以及新古典经济学等理论，构建区域物流引力模型，并对内蒙古鄂尔多斯物流需求进行预测。在识别出能够产生大量货物量的主导产业的基础上，通过回归拟合的方法对鄂尔多斯及其周边腹地的静态物流生成量进行预测，并利用赖利定律的断裂点公式分析中心城市与周边腹地的隶属关系。在此基础上，从派生需求角度，研究区域经济对物流需求的影响机理，解析影响需求的关键因素。进而，基于空间经济理论引力模型预测中心城市的动态物流生成量，从而揭示中心城市对腹地货物的集聚能力与空间经济集聚效应的内在联系机理，将预测研究思路拓展到空间经济的新领域。

关键词: 空间经济, 引力模型, 赖利定律, 需求预测

Abstract: Regional logistics demand forecasting is the precondition of regional logistics planning and decision making. It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, improvements on the prediction method in recent years have been insignificant and current statistical prediction methods often suffer from low precision and poor interpretation problems. Because of these flaws, the current methods fail not only at theoretical generalization of prediction models, but also at effective explanation of the modeling results. What prior studies fundamentally neglected is the influence of logistics radiation-the impact of "location" on the regional logistics development. Our paper is able to advance previous modeling efforts by using the gravity model in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, building a regional logistics gravity model, and taking city of Erdos as the research object. This study identifies the major industrial activities that are associated with large number of cargo flows, and further predicts the static logistic flows of the Erdos and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can influence the regional logistics demands, this study establishes a logistics demands potential model based on spatial economic principles, and advances modeling efforts on logistics demands prediction from simple statistical perspective to a comprehensive model with new application of spatial and regional economics.

Key words: spatial economy, gravity model, Reilly law, demand forecast