危化品水污染事件中政府危机信息公布策略与网络舆情扩散研究:基于多主体模型

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 175-185.

危化品水污染事件中政府危机信息公布策略与网络舆情扩散研究:基于多主体模型

余乐安¹, 李玲², 戴伟³, 汤铃¹

1. 北京化工大学经济管理学院, 北京 100029;
2. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100191;
3. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190

收稿日期:2016-03-15 出版日期:2016-08-28 发布日期:2016-09-24
通讯作者: 汤铃(通讯作者),北京化工大学经济管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士
作者简介:余乐安,北京化工大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;李玲,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院博士研究生;戴伟,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（91224001；71301006；71025005）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（ZY1320）。

Crisis Information Release Policy and Online Public Opinion Dissemination in Emergency of Hazardous Chemicals Leakage into River:A Multi-agent-based Model

Yu Lean¹, Li Ling², Dai Wei³, Tang Ling¹

1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029;
2. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191;
3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

Received:2016-03-15 Online:2016-08-28 Published:2016-09-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于多主体模型构建了危险化学品泄漏所造成的水污染事件中网络舆情扩散机制的仿真模型，以探讨不同的政府信息发布策略对网络舆情演化的影响，并探索有效的公众恐慌应急策略。特别的，该模型根据真实性，将危机信息分为真实信息和虚假信息；并根据不同的态度，将危机信息分为中性、有利和不利信息。其次，模型涵盖了主要的参与主体：网民、政府和媒体，并以两个典型的危化品泄漏事件为研究案例，检验模型的可行性与有效性。

关键词: 危机信息, 公众恐慌, 网络舆情, 危险化学品水污染, 多主体模型

Abstract:

This paper develops a multi-agent-based simulation model for online public opinion dissemination in emergency, to explore appropriate crisis information release policy for controlling public panic stemming from hazardous chemicals leakage accidents into rivers. In particular, two attributes of the crisis information are considered, i.e., the truthiness (true or false news) and attitude (neural, positive or negative emotion). Moreover, the proposed model covers the main agents in virtue community:the citizens, government, and media. We take two typical accidents of hazardous chemicals leakage into rivers as study cases, to test the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

Key words: crisis information, public panic, online opinion dissemination, hazardous chemicals leakage, multi-agent-based model

余乐安, 李玲, 戴伟, 汤铃. 危化品水污染事件中政府危机信息公布策略与网络舆情扩散研究:基于多主体模型[J]. , 2016, 28(8): 175-185.

Yu Lean, Li Ling, Dai Wei, Tang Ling. Crisis Information Release Policy and Online Public Opinion Dissemination in Emergency of Hazardous Chemicals Leakage into River:A Multi-agent-based Model[J]. , 2016, 28(8): 175-185.

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