管理评论

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 221-229.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

2014-2030年我国农业剩余劳动力转移趋势预测与管理

徐晓华1, 朱振2, 苏伟峰1   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学保险学院, 北京 100081;
    2. 国家信息中心博士后流动站, 北京 100045
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-19 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2018-01-24
  • 通讯作者: 徐晓华(通讯作者),中央财经大学保险学院副教授,副院长,博士。
  • 作者简介:朱振,国家信息中心博士后;苏伟峰,中央财经大学保险学院硕士研究生。

The Trend Forecast and Management of the Chinese Agricultural Surplus Labor Transfer During 2014-2030

Xu Xiaohua1, Zhu Zhen2, Su Weifeng1   

  1. 1. School of Insurance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081;
    2. Postgraduate Research Station, State Information Center, Beijing 100045
  • Received:2015-10-19 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2018-01-24

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摘要：

本文在前人研究基础上，创新地提出了农业剩余劳动力总量和转移数量的预测模型，以1978-2013年间我国农业剩余劳动力转移情况为样本，利用比较劳动生产率推算法对农业剩余劳动力转移现状进行分析，并对2014-2030年农业转移人口趋势进行预测。研究表明，未来我国农业剩余劳动力总量和转移数量将呈现逐年递减趋势，到2018年将可能出现农业剩余劳动力供给不足的问题。依据预测结果，本文提出了促进农业剩余劳动力合理转移、高效配置和加快推进农业转移人口市民化的对策建议。

关键词: 农业剩余劳动力, 农业转移人口, 新型职业农民

Abstract:

Based on the previous studies, this paper develops a model to forecast the number of the agricultural surplus labors and the transfer number of agricultural surplus labors. With the transfer of agricultural surplus labors from 1978 to 2013 as sample, this paper adopts comparative labor productivity's recursive algorithm to analyze the current situation and forecast the trend of the agriculture surplus labors in 17 years. The research shows that the total number of agricultural surplus labors and the transfer of agricultural surplus labors are decreasing year by year, the absence of agriculture surplus labor will appear by around 2018. According to the forecast, we put forward countermeasure suggestions on how to promote the transfer of agricultural surplus labors reasonably and efficiently.

Key words: agricultural surplus labor, agricultural transfer population, new type professional farmer