经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀的互动机制研究

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 14-23.

经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀的互动机制研究

鲁晓琳^1,2,3, 郭琨^1,2, 董志²

1. 中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心, 北京 100190;
2. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
3. 中国工商银行博士后科研工作站, 北京 100032

收稿日期:2015-11-20 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2018-01-24
通讯作者: 鲁晓琳(通讯作者),中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,中国工商银行博士后科研工作站博士后,博士。
作者简介:郭琨,中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,助理研究员,博士;董志,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71202114；71501175）；山东省自主创新及成果转化专项（2014ZZCX03302）。

Study on the Interaction Mechanism of Economic Growth and Inflation under the Background of Economic Financialization

Lu Xiaolin^1,2,3, Guo Kun^1,2, Dong Zhi²

1. CAS Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, Beijing 100190;
2. School of Economics and Management, UCAS, Beijing 100190;
3. Post-doctoral Research Center of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Beijing 100032

Received:2015-11-20 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2018-01-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在虚拟经济快速发展的背景下，经济虚拟化程度已成为经济增长与通货膨胀二者关系不容忽视的影响因素。本文以美国从工业化时期发展演变到经济虚拟化时期的过程为研究对象，通过滚动时窗的贝叶斯网络学习，研究了经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀二者之间的动态互动机制，发现虚拟经济与实体经济之间的互动关系变得越来越紧密，以债券市场、股票市场、房地产市场的顺序，虚拟经济相关指标逐步进入经济增长与通货膨胀的传导机制。

关键词: 经济增长, 通货膨胀, 经济虚拟化, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract:

With the rapid development of fictitious economy, the financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship between economic growth and inflation. In consideration of the evolvement from the period of industrialization to economic financialization of the U.S., through the Bayesian network learning of rolling time window, we concentrate on the dynamic interaction mechanism between economic growth and inflation under the background of economic financialization. It turns out that the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, in the order of bond, stock and real estate market, indicators related to fictitious economy gradually enter into the transmission mechanism of economic growth and inflation.

Key words: economic growth, inflation, economic financialization, Bayesian network

鲁晓琳, 郭琨, 董志. 经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀的互动机制研究[J]. , 2018, 30(1): 14-23.

Lu Xiaolin, Guo Kun, Dong Zhi. Study on the Interaction Mechanism of Economic Growth and Inflation under the Background of Economic Financialization[J]. , 2018, 30(1): 14-23.

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