管理评论

›› 2012, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 3-7.

• 经济与金融 •    下一篇

国际金融危机对我国GDP影响到底多大？

王会娟1,陈锡康1,2,3,杨翠红1,2,3   

  1. （1.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院，北京 100190；2. 中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室，北京 100190；3.中国科学院预测科学研究中心，北京 100190）
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-26 修回日期:2012-09-26 出版日期:2012-03-25 发布日期:2012-09-27

How and to What Extent does the International Financial Crisis Affect China’s GDP?

Wang Huijuan1,2,3, Chen Xikang1,2,3 and Yang Cuihong1,2,3   

  1. (1.Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;2.Key Laboratory of Management, Decision-making and Information Systems, Beijing 100190;3.Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190)
  • Received:2012-09-26 Revised:2012-09-26 Online:2012-03-25 Published:2012-09-27

摘要： 本文利用区分加工出口的非竞争型投入产出模型，从受到金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发，测算了国际金融危机对我国GDP到底产生了多大的影响。测算结果显示：金融危机对我国的负面影响是逐步加剧的；重点行业影响较为集中；由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确，刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响。

关键词: 金融危机, GDP影响, 投入产出模型

Abstract: This paper uses an input-output model of the non-competitive imports type capturing China’s processing exports to calculate the impact of international financial crisis on China’s GDP from the point of export and investment, which are most directly affected by the international financial crisis. The results show that: negative impact of the financial crisis on China’s economy is gradually intensified; in terms of industry the impact is mainly on several key industries. The negative impacts, however, are greatly lessened due to China’s timely implemented macro-control policies.