经济波动的福利效应:中外例证

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 54-66.

经济波动的福利效应:中外例证

丁志帆

河南大学经济学院, 开封 475004

收稿日期:2013-11-07 出版日期:2016-03-28 发布日期:2016-03-31
作者简介:丁志帆,河南大学经济学院副教授,博士。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJL019)。

The Welfare Effects of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from China and Foreign Countries

Ding Zhifan

School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004

Received:2013-11-07 Online:2016-03-28 Published:2016-03-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文通过引入递归效用函数,构建了经济波动福利效应测算的理论模型,在此基础上运用1978-2010年间各国居民人均消费数据,分别对中国、4个代表性发达国家和8个代表性新兴市场经济国家的经济波动福利效应进行测算与综合对比分析。经验研究显示,改革开放以来,中国经济的稳定性不断增强,经济波动给居民带来的福利损失明显降低;Lucas的经验研究结论适用于代表性发达国家,但不完全适用于代表性新兴市场经济国家;相对于发达国家,平抑经济波动更能为中国居民带来福利改善,而且平抑经济波动对中国居民福利水平的提高程度高于韩国、南非和巴西,但低于其他几个代表性新兴市场经济国家。中国政府应当在深化市场经济体制改革的同时,注意需求管理政策调控的力度和时滞性,以增强宏观经济的稳定性。

关键词: 递归偏好, 经济波动, 福利效应, 发达国家, 新兴市场经济国家

Abstract:

In this paper, the welfare effects of economic fluctuations are estimated respectively with their per capita consumption data in China, four representative developed countries and eight representative emerging market economies between 1978 and 2010, based on the theoretical model of estimating the welfare effects of economic volatilities by introducing the recursive utility, and then a comprehensive comparative analysis is made to the welfare effects of these several economies' fluctuations. The findings suggest that since the reform and opening up the Chinese economy's stability is growing, and the residents welfare losses from economic fluctuations are reducing significantly. Moreover, Lucas' empirical studies conclusion applies to the representation of the developed countries, but not applies to the representation of emerging market economies exactly. Finally, Relative to the developed countries, it can bring more benefits for Chinese residents through stabilizing economic fluctuations, and the degree of improvement is higher than South Korea, South Africa and Brazil, but less than other representative emerging market economies. Thus, the Chinese government should pay more attention to demand management policies' control efforts and time lag to enhance macroeconomic stability during the process of deepening market economic system reform.

Key words: recursive preferences, economic fluctuations, welfare effects, developed countries, the emerging market economies

丁志帆. 经济波动的福利效应:中外例证[J]. , 2016, 28(3): 54-66.

Ding Zhifan. The Welfare Effects of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from China and Foreign Countries[J]. , 2016, 28(3): 54-66.

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