新一代人工智能发展促进了城市产业结构优化吗？——效率提升与协调发展的双元视角分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从效率提升与协调发展的双元视角出发，在深刻认识新一代人工智能的通用元技术这一新质生产力特征的基础上，系统阐释了其通过资源优化配置和三次产业创新力非平衡提升影响城市产业结构高度化与合理化的内在理论机制。随后，以国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区的分批设立为准自然实验，利用交错双重差分法展开了政策评估。研究发现，新一代人工智能发展促进了产业结构高度化，但抑制了产业结构合理化。机制分析揭示，产生该差异化影响的原因在于：新一代人工智能虽提升了资源配置效率和总体创新力，但也加剧了三次产业创新力间的失衡。异质性分析表明，随着人口流动性、数字普惠金融发展水平、市场化程度及对外开放水平的提升，新一代人工智能可增强对产业结构高度化的促进效应，同时减弱对产业结构合理化的抑制作用。本文为理解新一代人工智能对产业结构变革的创造性破坏效应提供了分析逻辑，也为探寻现代化产业体系建设之路提供了启发。

关键词: 新一代人工智能, 产业结构优化, 通用目的技术, 发明方法的发明, 交错双重差分

Abstract: Starting from the dual perspectives of efficiency improvement and coordinated development, and based on a deep understanding of the general purpose meta-technology characteristic of the new-generation artificial intelligence (AI) as a new form of productive force, this paper systematically explains the intrinsic theoretical mechanism through which AI influences the optimization of urban industrial structure, both in terms of heightening and rationalizing the structure, by improving resource allocation and enhancing the unbalanced innovation capacity across the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. Using the phased establishment of the National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Experimental Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, the study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach for policy evaluation. The results show that the development of new-generation AI has promoted industrial structure heightening, but suppressed its rationalization. The mechanism analysis reveals that the disparity in effects arises because new-generation AI exacerbates the imbalance in innovation capacity between the three industries although it enhances resource allocation efficiency and overall innovation capacity. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that with the improvement of factors such as population mobility, digital inclusive finance, marketization, and the level of openness, new-generation AI can more effectively promote industrial structure heightening, while mitigating its suppressive effect on industrial structure rationalization. This paper provides an analytical framework for understanding the creative destruction effects of new-generation AI on industrial structure transformation and offers insights into the path of building a modern industrial system.

Key words: new generation of artificial intelligence, industrial structure optimization, general purpose technology, invention of a method of invention, staggered difference-in-differences

曹玉平, 刘竟威. 新一代人工智能发展促进了城市产业结构优化吗？——效率提升与协调发展的双元视角分析[J]. 管理评论, 2026, 38(6): 28-43.

Cao Yuping, Liu Jingwei. Can the Development of New-generation Artificial Intelligence Optimize the Urban Industrial Structure?—From the Dual Perspectives of Efficiency Improvement and Coordinated Development[J]. Management Review, 2026, 38(6): 28-43.

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