创新提速与产业结构升级降速何以并存？——基于多元融资渠道的解释

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在内循环为主导的新发展格局下，自主创新成为产业结构升级的关键驱动力，但近年来我国存在技术创新提速与产业结构升级降速并存的现象。基于2013—2020年中国省级面板数据，采用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法和半参数空间计量模型定量研究发现，低质量创新可能导致区域产业结构固化，折射出中国现阶段发达地区高质量创新使产业结构升级遭遇瓶颈。本文认为，并存现象的本质在于中国技术创新数量激增背后存在创新质量下降的“技术陷阱”，特别是产业结构升级达到一定水平后，融资渠道单一限制了耐心资本的培育。着眼于企业债券、影子银行、数字金融多元融资渠道对技术创新质量的复杂作用，提出技术创新随多元融资渠道规模变化而对产业结构升级产生差异性影响。基于面板门限模型的实证研究结果表明，地区企业债券融资规模较高、银行影子监管制度不完备、数字金融规模较小的区域更容易产生“技术陷阱”。上述结论表明，降低高质量技术创新融资摩擦、拓展多元融资渠道是当前中国促进产业结构升级提速的重要途径。

关键词: 技术创新, 产业结构升级, 多元融资渠道, 门限效应

Abstract: Under thenew development pattern dominated by internal circulation, independent innovation has becomea key force driving industrial structure upgrading. However, in recent years, there is a phenomenon that the acceleration of technological innovation coexists with the deceleration of industrial structure upgrading in many provincial-level regions of China. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, using Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method, varying coefficient model, and semiparametric spatial econometric model, we find that low-quality innovation may lead to solidification of regional industrial structure, and this is a reason underlying the industrial structure upgrading bottleneck caused by the high-quality innovation in developed areas. We conclude that the co-existence phenomenon is a result of “Technology Trap” behind rapid increase of technological innovation. The lack of high-quality innovation drive has slowed down the pace of industrial structure upgrading. We explore why industrial structure upgrading lags behind technological innovation from perspective of multiple financing channels. Since slow development of formal finance and serious financial discrimination, we focus on complex effect of diversified financing channels of corporate bonds, shadow banking and digital finance on the quality of technological innovation. It is pointed out that technological innovation will affect the industrial differentiation of industrial structure upgrading along with scale change of diversified financing channels. Empirical results based on panel threshold model show that regions with high scale of corporate bond financing, incomplete shadow banking supervision system and low scale of digital finance are more likely to fall in “Technology Trap”. The above conclusions show that reducing friction of financing high-quality technological innovation and reversing the short-sightedness of financial sector are the important ways to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.

Key words: technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading, diversified financing channels, threshold effect

陈丛波, 胡登峰, 李文惠. 创新提速与产业结构升级降速何以并存？——基于多元融资渠道的解释[J]. 管理评论, 2026, 38(4): 54-63.

Chen Congbo, Hu Dengfeng, Li Wenhui. Why does the Acceleration of Innovation Coexist with the Deceleration of Industrial Structure Upgrading? An Interpretation Based on Multiple Financing Channels[J]. Management Review, 2026, 38(4): 54-63.

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