高铁可达性对城市可持续发展的影响效应

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 高速铁路作为融合型新基建投资建设的重要发展领域，其赋予城市的可达性程度对城市经济社会高质量发展产生了深刻影响，为探究高铁可达性对于城市全面可持续发展的影响效应，本研究基于2009—2020年中国29个省会城市和直辖市的相关数据，构建城市可持续发展指标体系测度城市可持续发展水平。利用空间杜宾模型研究高铁可达性对城市可持续发展水平的空间溢出效应，进一步利用中介效应模型、门槛效应模型揭示二者之间的传导机制和门槛效应。研究表明：①高铁可达性程度的提高显著提升了城市的可持续发展得分，并呈现显著的空间溢出效应；②高铁可达性程度通过提高科学技术支出、城市劳动生产率水平、城市道路网密度等促进城市可持续发展；③高铁可达性程度对于城市可持续发展的影响呈现非线性特征，其影响程度与城市科学技术支出、劳动生产率水平和道路网密度的门槛区间密切相关。鉴于此，本文从加强高铁行业投资，合理安排高铁线路连接布局；建立投入评估标准，实现科学技术支出投资回报效率最大化；加强高铁发展与城市劳动生产率水平的链接效应；加强高铁布局对道路网密度的影响效应等方面提出了政策建议，以期为将来城市可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 高铁可达性, 城市可持续发展, 空间计量模型, 中介效应模型, 门槛效应模型

Abstract: As an important development field of integrated infrastructure investment and construction, high-speed railway has a profound impact on the economic and social development of cities in terms of its accessibility. To explore the impact of high-speed railway accessibility on sustainable urban development, this study constructs a sustainable urban development index system to measure the level of sustainable development of 29 cities in China from 2009 to 2020. This study adopts the spatial Dubin model (SDM) to investigate the spatial spillover effect of high-speed rail accessibility on sustainable urban development, and then uses mediating effect model and threshold effect model to reveal the transmission mechanism and threshold effect between high-speed rail accessibility and sustainable urban development. The results show that: (1) The increase in the degree of AHSR (accessibility of high-speed railway) significantly improves the SUDS (sustainable urban development score), and shows a significant spatial spillover effect; (2) The AHSR promotes the SUDS by increasing the scientific and technological expenditures, the level of labor productivity, and the density of the road network of the city; (3) The impacts of the degree of AHSR on the SUDS are non-linear, and the degree of these impacts are closely related to the threshold interval of the scientific and technological expenditures, the level of labor productivity, and the density of the road network of the city. This study puts forward policy recommendations in terms of strengthening investment in the high-speed rail industry and rationally arranging the layout of high-speed rail connections; establishing input assessment criteria to maximize the efficiency of return on investment in scientific and technological expenditures; strengthening the link effect between the development of high-speed railway and the level of labor productivity; and strengthening the impact effect of high-speed railway on the density of the road network, with a view to providing a scientific basis for sustainable urban development in the future.

Key words: accessibility of high-speed railway, sustainable urban development, spatial econometric analysis, mediating effect model, threshold effect model

薛斌, 常可欣, 刘炳胜. 高铁可达性对城市可持续发展的影响效应[J]. 管理评论, 2026, 38(3): 14-27.

Xue Bin, Chang Kexin, Liu Bingsheng. The Effect of Accessibility of High-speed Railway on Sustainable Urban Development[J]. Management Review, 2026, 38(3): 14-27.

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