管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 238-248.

• 会计与财务管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

业绩预告历史准确度影响企业债务违约风险吗？

翟小芳1, 宋云玲2, 黄晓蓓3   

  1. 1. 东北财经大学会计学院, 大连 116025;
    2. 内蒙古大学经济管理学院, 呼和浩特 010021;
    3. 北方工业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100041
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-13 发布日期:2025-07-30
  • 作者简介:翟小芳，东北财经大学会计学院博士研究生;宋云玲（通讯作者），内蒙古大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师;黄晓蓓，北方工业大学经济管理学院副教授，硕士生导师。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学基金项目（22YJA630073）；国家自然科学基金项目（72072015）；中央高校基本科研业务费项目（2021JJ021）。

Does the Accuracy of Prior Management Earnings Forecasts Affect Corporate Debt Default Risk?

Zhai Xiaofang1, Song Yunling2, Huang Xiaobei3   

  1. 1. School of Accounting, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021;
    3. School of Economics and Management, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100041
  • Received:2021-12-13 Published:2025-07-30

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摘要： 本文以沪深A股上市公司2006—2023年数据为样本检验了业绩预告历史准确度（APMEF）对企业债务违约风险的影响。结果表明，APMEF能显著抑制企业债务违约风险，APMEF提高一个标准差，企业债务违约风险相比样本均值下降约18.17%。“预告声誉”和“预测能力”是APMEF影响企业债务违约风险的主要渠道。当企业面临较高的外部不确定性、紧缩的货币政策、较低的共同机构持股比例、处于成长期或衰退期时，APMEF对企业债务违约风险的抑制作用更明显。本文结果丰富了信息披露与企业债务违约风险关系的研究，提供了有关强制性业绩预告“溢出效应”的证据，从信息披露的角度为重大金融风险的预测与防范提供了有益借鉴。

关键词: 业绩预告, 债务违约风险, 预告声誉, 预测能力

Abstract: We examine whether and how the accuracy of prior management earnings forecasts (hereinafter APMEF) affects corporate debt default risk using A-share companies listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the period from 2006 to 2023. The results indicate that APMEF can significantly reduce corporate default risk. A one standard deviation increase in APMEF leads to a drop of 18.17% over the sample mean of corporate debt default risk. APMEF affects corporate debt default risk via forecast reputation and forecasting ability. The negative relation between APMEF and corporate debt default risk mainly occurs in companies facing high external uncertainty, exposed to stringent monetary policies and low-percentage owned by common institutions and in the growing or declining stage of their corporate life cycle. Our results enrich researches on the relationship between information disclosure and debt default risk, and provide evidence on the “spill-over effects” of mandatory management earnings forecast. The results also shed lights on the feasible approach to prevent and resolve material financial risk via information disclosure.

Key words: management earnings forecast, debt default risk, forecast reputation, forecasting ability