高铁开通与制造业就业结构

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在人口红利逐步消失背景下，如何实现劳动力更充分和更高质量就业成为突出的现实问题。本文聚焦高速铁路开通对制造业就业结构的影响，首先构建一个考虑高铁运输成本和区域要素成本在内的多区域空间经济模型，并将制造业分为劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型行业，采用2005—2013年中国工业企业数据，运用广义双重差分模型探究高铁开通与区域制造业就业结构的关系。研究发现，高铁开通显著降低沿线地级市劳动密集型行业就业水平，提高资本密集型行业就业水平，但对技术密集型行业就业无显著影响。中介效应检验发现，要素成本渠道仅对劳动密集型行业就业产生抑制作用，资本深化渠道主要提高资本密集型行业就业水平。异质性研究显示，金融发展水平和政府干预程度主要影响劳动和资本密集型行业就业，而地区创新水平和生产性服务业集聚水平对促进技术密集型行业就业具有关键作用。

关键词: 高铁, 就业结构, 要素成本, 资本深化

Abstract: As the demographic dividend fades, ensuring full and high-quality employment emerges as a pressing concern. This paper investigates the interplay between high-speed rail (HSR) and the employment structure of manufacturing industry. First, we construct a multi-regional spatial economic model encompassing transport and factor costs. Then we divide manufacturing industry into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive types to assess HSR’s impact using data of Chinese industrial companies from 2005 to 2013. The findings are as follows. (1) The opening of HSR plays a significant inhibitory role, a promoting role and an insignificant role on the employment respectively in labor-intensive industry, capital-intensive industry and technology-intensive industry. (2) Our exploration of underlying mechanisms suggests the factor cost channel solely impacts labor-intensive industry, whereas capital deepening channel primarily elevates capital-intensive employment. (3) Heterogeneity research displays that financial development and government intervention mainly affect labor and capital intensive industries, while regional innovation level and the agglomeration of productive service industry influence technology intensive industries.

Key words: high-speed rail, employment structure, factor cost, capital deepening

刘志东, 李钦, 荆中博, 何晓奇. 高铁开通与制造业就业结构[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(6): 15-26.

Liu Zhidong, Li Qin, Jing Zhongbo, He Xiaoqi. High-speed Rail Opening and Manufacturing Employment Structure[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(6): 15-26.

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