碳的社会成本估算：研究进展与政策启示

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 碳的社会成本(SCC)是气候政策的量化基准和重要分析工具，在估算数值、协助政策分析和制定等方面已有诸多国际经验，但我国尚未有官方测算结果。为向完善双碳政策体系提供有益借鉴，本文从概念解析与对比、测算方法与关键参数、政策意义与国际实践等方面梳理SCC的相关研究成果，重点探讨了SCC与碳定价关系、国际SCC与区域SCC、贴现率、不确定性等存在争议的问题。本文认为，我国在构建完善双碳政策体系的过程中，可尝试引入SCC估值作为碳定价、碳交易工具的定量基准，基于我国碳排放现状与碳交易实践情况、已有制度框架和政策工具等特点，推动各种碳交易工具协同治理碳排放，保持碳价运行在合理区间，平衡碳减排过程中代际之间、行业之间、地区之间的公平关系。

关键词: 碳的社会成本, 碳定价, 公平加权, 不确定性

Abstract: The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a quantitative benchmark and an important analytical tool for climate policy. There have been extensive related international experience in estimating SCC values and applying SCC in policy analysis and formulation, but there is no official SCC calculation result in China. To provide a useful reference for improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system, this paper sorts out the relevant research results of SCC from the aspects of conceptual analysis and comparison, measurement methods and key parameters, policy significance and international practices and focuses on controversial issues such as the relationship between SCC and carbon pricing, international SCC and regional SCC, equity weighting, uncertainty, etc. This paper believes that in the process of building and improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system in China, we can try to introduce SCC valuation as a quantitative benchmark for carbon pricing and carbon trading tools. Based on the status quo of carbon emissions and carbon trading practices in China, as well as the characteristics of existing institutional frameworks and policy tools, we can also promote various carbon trading tools to manage carbon emissions coordinately, keep carbon prices within a reasonable range, and balance the fair relationship between generations, industries, and regions in the process of reducing carbon emissions.

Key words: social cost of carbon, carbon pricing, fairness weighting, uncertainty

吴昺兵, 李秀婷, 欧阳璐. 碳的社会成本估算：研究进展与政策启示[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(5): 53-66.

Wu Bingbing, Li Xiuting, Ouyang Lu. Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon: Research Progress and Policy Implications[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(5): 53-66.

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