管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 3-16.

• 经济与金融管理 •    

电力系统低碳转型的减排效应：基于结构优化的视角

张国兴1, 高秀林1, 杨阳1, 余乐安2, 刘传斌3   

  1. 1. 兰州大学管理学院, 兰州 730000;
    2. 四川大学商学院, 成都 610065;
    3. 教育部高等学校科学研究发展中心, 北京 100086
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-18 发布日期:2025-06-18
  • 作者简介:张国兴，兰州大学管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士；高秀林，兰州大学管理学院博士研究生；杨阳，兰州大学管理学院硕士研究生；余乐安，四川大学商学院教授，博士生导师，博士；刘传斌，教育部高等学校科学研究发展中心助理研究员。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD112)

Emission Reduction Effect of Low-carbon Transition in Power System: Analysis from the Perspective of Structure Optimization

Zhang Guoxing1, Gao Xiulin1, Yang Yang1, Yu Lean2, Liu Chuanbin3   

  1. 1. School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;
    2. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065;
    3. Center for Scientific Research and Development in Higher Education Institutes, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100086
  • Received:2024-04-18 Published:2025-06-18

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摘要： 电力系统作为中国CO2排放的最大来源，促进其电力结构的清洁化转型，有利于减缓城市碳排放、实现“双碳”目标。本文在将中国所有6000千瓦及以上电厂(累计14570家)生产数据分解到城市层级的基础上，利用2015-2019年274个城市电力生产端的面板数据，运用空间计量模型分析电力系统低碳转型对城市碳排放的影响以及空间差异。然后结合LMDI分解分析，通过设置两种政策情境预测了七大区域电力系统未来的碳排放路径。研究结果表明：①相比火力发电，可再生能源发电有效降低了华中、华南、西南、西北地区以及非资源型城市的碳排放量；②电力结构清洁化转型能够有效抑制城市碳排放的增加，且存在积极的空间溢出效应，当可再生能源发电比例提升1%时，城市碳排放量平均下降2.1%；③依据电力结构优化转型的政策情境分析表明，西北及西南地区电力系统将率先实现碳排放的达峰，而华北及华东地区则最后实现，且所有区域电力系统均可能在2026-2030年先后实现达峰目标。当前清洁能源发电量总体占比仍然较小，需在推进发电技术革新的同时，充分挖掘与利用风、光等可再生能源发电的潜力，持续增强其对城市降碳与绿色治理的积极作用。

关键词: 电力生产, 可再生能源发电, 电力结构, 城市碳减排, 政策情境

Abstract: Promoting structural decarbonization of the power system, the largest source of CO2 emissions in China, is conducive to slowing down urban carbon emissions and realizing the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. On the basis of decomposing the production data of all power plants of 6000 kW and above in China (14,570 plants in total) to the city level, this paper uses the panel data of 274 urban power production terminals from 2015 to 2019 to analyze the impact of low-carbon transformation of power system on urban carbon emissions and the spatial differences by using a spatial metro-logy model. With the aid of LMDI decomposition analysis, the future carbon emission paths of power systems in seven regions are predicted under two policy scenarios. The results show that:(1) Compared with thermal power generation, renewable energy generation can effectively reduce urban carbon emissions in Central, South, Southwest and Northwest China; (2) The clean transformation of power generation structure can effectively inhibit the increase of urban carbon emissions, and there is a positive spatial spillover effect. Specifically, when the share of renewable energy generation increases by 1%, urban carbon emissions fall by an average of 2.1%; (3) Regional policy scenario analysis shows that power systems in Northwest and Southwest China will be the first to achieve the peak of carbon emissions, while those in North and East China will be the last, and all regional power systems will achieve the peak goal successively in 2026-2030. At present, the overall proportion of clean energy power generation is still small, and it is necessary to fully tap and utilize the potential of wind, sunlight and other renewable energy power generation while promoting power generation technology innovation, and continue to enhance the positive role of renewables in urban carbon reduction and green governance.

Key words: electricity production, renewable energy generation, power generation structure, urban carbon emission reduction, policy scenario