发展预期会影响企业并购吗?——基于中国A股上市企业的经验证据

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 结合供给冲击、需求收缩、预期转弱的经济发展态势下企业发展预期转弱的现实背景，本文以2017—2019年中国A股上市企业为研究对象，实证研究了发展预期对企业并购决策行为的影响及作用机理。研究发现：①企业发展预期转弱会明显加大企业并购实施强度；②在作用路径方面，发展预期转弱促进企业并购主要是通过适度债务扩张来实现；③通过加强并购行为，在发展预期转弱环境影响下的企业经营业绩波动得到明显抑制，全要素生产率得到显著提升；④企业发展预期转弱对并购行为的影响在成熟期及民营企业中更为显著。本文丰富了企业并购行为的影响动因及经济后果研究，为企业并购行为提供稳预期视角下的经验证据与政策启示。

关键词: 发展预期, 企业并购, 风险承担

Abstract: Given the weakening expectation of corporate growth against the backdrop of supply shock, demand contraction and lowering expectations, this paper takes Chinese A-share listed enterprises in 2017—2019 as the research object, and empirically studies the impact of growth expectations on corporate M&As and the mechanism underlying the impact. The study shows that: (1) the weakening expectation of corporate growth intensifies M&A activities; (2) the intensification is realized mainly through moderate debt expansion; (3) by intensifying M&As, the enterprises exposed to weakening growth expectation suffer less fluctuations in operating performance and achieve a significant increase in total factor productivity; (4) the influence of weakening growth expectation on M&A activities is more significant in mature and private enterprises. This paper enriches the research on the influencing factors and economic consequences of M&A activities, and provides empirical evidence and policy inspiration from the perspective of stable expectation for M&A behavior.

Key words: growth expectations, corporate mergers and acquisitions, risk taking

陈小军. 发展预期会影响企业并购吗?——基于中国A股上市企业的经验证据[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(3): 68-77.

Chen Xiaojun. Will Development Expectations Affect Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions?—Based on the Empirical Evidence of Chinese A-share Listed Companies[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(3): 68-77.

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