中美贸易摩擦对人民币亚洲区域化进程的影响研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 人民币在亚洲的实质性区域化进程是推进人民币国际化的重要内容,中美贸易摩擦这一事件加快了全球产业分工和国际贸易格局的转变,随着我国部分产业向亚洲其他国家转移,我国与亚洲国家的经贸往来加强,这或将影响人民币在亚洲的区域化进程。本文基于改进的Frankel-Wei回归模型,使用48个月滚动窗口的估计结果构建货币影响力指数和人民币相对影响指标,研究了亚洲总体货币区域化进程和亚洲国家人民币区域化进程,并结合事件分析法研究中美贸易摩擦对人民币亚洲区域化进程的影响。结果显示:亚洲影响力较大的储备货币为美元和人民币,美元仍保持亚洲主导地位;人民币区域化国家主要分布在东南亚、东亚和中亚地区;总体来看,中美贸易摩擦对推进人民币亚洲区域化进程产生积极影响,而贸易摩擦的进一步升级未对其产生显著的负面效应。中美贸易摩擦促进印度尼西亚、不丹和印度等国形成人民币区域化,有利于提升人民币对也门、尼泊尔和阿富汗等国本币价格的影响力,但贸易摩擦的进一步升级导致吉尔吉斯斯坦和土耳其等国加速偏离人民币区域化,减弱人民币对其本币价格的影响力。

关键词: 人民币区域化, 中美贸易摩擦, 货币影响力指数, 汇率, 事件分析法

Abstract: The forming process of Renminbi bloc in Asia plays an important role in Renminbi internationalization. The US-China trade tensions have accelerated the structure changes of global industrial specialization and international trade. With part of China’s industries transferring to other Asian countries, China’s trade and economic relations with Asian countries have strengthened, which may affect the forming process of Renminbi bloc in Asia. Based on the currency weights estimated from a modified Frankel-Wei regression model with a 48-month rolling window, a currency influential index and a renminbi’s relative influence indicator are proposed and the currency bloc forming process in whole Asia and Asian countries are studied. Besides, an event study method is applied to explore the impacts of US-China trade tensions on how Renminbi bloc in Asia and Asian countries changes. The results indicate that the US dollar and Renminbi are the most influential reserve currencies in Asia, while the US dollar is still the dominant international reserve currency. Countries covered under Renminbi bloc are located in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central Asia. The US-China trade tensions have a positive impact on Renminbi bloc forming process in Asia, and further escalation of tensions has no significant negative effect on it. The US-China trade tensions help strengthen the Renminbi bloc in Indonesia, Bhutan and India, and also have a positive impact on improving the influence of Renminbi on Yemen, Nepal and Afghanistan’s national currencies. However, the further escalation of US-China trade tensions accelerate the deviation of Kyrgyzstan and Turkey’s national currencies away from Renminbi bloc, which weakens the influence of Renminbi in these countries.

Key words: Renminbi bloc, US-China trade tensions, currency influential index, exchange rate, event study

苏丹华, 崔笑宁, 鲍勤. 中美贸易摩擦对人民币亚洲区域化进程的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(3): 45-59.

Su Danhua, Cui Xiaoning, Bao Qin. Impacts of US-China Trade Tensions on Renminbi Bloc Forming Process in Asia[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(3): 45-59.

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