管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 315-325.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市家庭贫困脆弱性多维视角动态演化研究

万里洋1, 吴和成2, 卢维学2   

  1. 1. 青岛理工大学管理工程学院, 青岛 266525;
    2. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 南京 211106
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-17 出版日期:2022-02-28 发布日期:2022-03-24
  • 作者简介:万里洋，青岛理工大学管理工程学院讲师，博士;吴和成，南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士;卢维学，南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院博士研究生
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目（16BGL033）；江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目（KYCX19_0145）。

Dynamic Evolution of Urban Households' Poverty Vulnerability in China from Multidimensional Perspectives

Wan Liyang1, Wu Hecheng2, Lu Weixue2   

  1. 1. School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266525;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106
  • Received:2019-04-17 Online:2022-02-28 Published:2022-03-24

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摘要： 基于中国居民两轮微观调查数据，本文通过构建期望贫困概率模型测量城市家庭贫困脆弱性，并从全国、地区、家庭维度进行动态演化研究。结果表明：中国对国际减贫的边际效应有所下降，城市慢性贫困持续好转，而暂时性贫困却有加剧迹象；相对贫困日益突出，且在北京、上海等经济发达地区尤为严峻，黑龙江贫困形势出现恶化，河南、湖南隐形贫困覆盖面最广，河南、湖北、湖南及重庆则是贫困高发区域。随着时间推移，贫困脆弱性年轻家庭化趋势明显，户主性别已退化为贫困脆弱性的非影响因素，而婚姻、孩子抚养问题成为扰动家庭稳定主要风险；个体教育的投入已无法形成抑制效应，只有均衡提升家庭教育水平才是减少贫困脆弱性的有效手段。从有效性识别来看，全国相对贫困线适用于慢性贫困脆弱性，地区相对贫困线适合暂时性贫困脆弱性，而高脆弱性识别则能助力精准脱贫。

关键词: 城市家庭, 贫困脆弱性, 概率模型, 动态演化, 精准脱贫

Abstract: Based on two rounds of micro-survey data of Chinese residents, this paper constructs an expected poverty probability model to measure the poverty vulnerability of urban households, and studies the dynamic evolution from the national, regional and family dimensions. The results show that China’s marginal effect on international poverty reduction has declined, urban chronic poverty has continued to improve, but temporary poverty has shown signs of aggravation. Relative poverty is increasingly prominent, and it is becoming more and more serious in developed areas. Meanwhile, the situation of poverty in Heilongjiang has worsened, Henan and Hunan have the widest coverage of invisible poverty, and Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Chongqing are the areas with high incidence of poverty. Over time, poverty vulnerability tends to the young household evidently; the gender of householder has degenerated into a non-influencing factor in poverty vulnerability, while marriage and child-rearing become the main risk of disturbing family stability. Moreover, the investment of individual education has been unable to inhibit the poverty vulnerability unless the family education level is promoted in a balanced way. In terms of effective identification, national relative poverty line applies to chronic poverty vulnerability, regional relative poverty line is suitable for temporary poverty vulnerability, and the identification of high vulnerability is conducive to accurate poverty alleviation.

Key words: urban household, poverty vulnerability, probability model, dynamic evolution, accurate poverty alleviation